Key Points
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The Federal Reserve is expected to announce no rate cuts today.
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However, two rate cuts are expected for all of 2025.
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Investors are waiting for these announcements. In the meantime, the market has climbed.
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The stock market today opened slightly higher. There’s still significant uncertainty in the markets, but the lack of any major bad news this morning kept the markets green. There has been some good news regarding Ukraine after geopolitical chaos in the Middle East yesterday.
The FOMC meeting continues today, and an interest rate decision is expected to be taken today. Many expect the Federal Reserve to be more dovish due to cooler macro figures this month.
Here’s a market update as of 10:00 A.M (ET) today.
- The S&P 500 is up 30.67 points, or 0.55%.
- The Nasdaq Composite is up 132 points, or 0.75%.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 204.64 points, or 0.49%.
The Fed Meeting Today
The Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be making comments later today and will offer investors more clarity about the economy. Here’s what we know about the timeline:
Time: 2.00 P.M (ET).
- Fed Interest Rate Decision
- FOMC Economic Projections
- FOMC Statement
Time: 2.30 P.M (ET)
- FOMC Press Conference
How the market closes today largely depends on the outcome of today’s meeting and Powell’s comments. A dovish stance that implies more rate cuts and alleviates tariff fears should cause the market to close green today.
The markets expect the Fed to keep interest rates on hold today. The Fed Chair is expected to outline two rate cuts for 2025. Previously, the market expected a cut after inflation came in cooler for February, but the stance has changed as tariffs could increase inflation more. UMich sees 4.9% inflation a year out. In contrast, the Fed sees 3.13%.
Key Macro Events Today
- Mortgage applications declined 6.2% last week, down from 11.2% the week before and 20.4% even before that. However, the stock market hasn’t reacted too negatively to this data since weekly data does not indicate a long-term trend. MBA mortgage applications fell over 17% in the second week of October 2024, but the market rallied regardless.
- Bank of America’s CEO said that he expects the U.S. economy to slow due to tariffs. However, he also said that consumers are spending at a faster rate than last year.
- Eurozone CPI came in at 2.3% year-over-year vs. the 2.4% forecast.
Tariff Update
White House economic advisor Hassett said that he and the Commerce and Treasury Secretary spent last night negotiating with other countries about mutually lowering tariffs before the reciprocal tariff deadline kicks in on the 2nd of April.
Geopolitical News
The Gaza ceasefire collapsed yesterday, and there does not seem to be any talk of another ceasefire yet.
As for Ukraine, progress is being made after Trump’s call with Putin yesterday. Putin agreed to stop strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and conducted a prisoner swap with Ukraine today.
Trump is expected to speak with the Ukrainian President today at 10:00 A.M (ET).
Other Assets
Gold has been on a massive rally and is up 39.4% in the past year. Gold futures have broken above $3,000 and held above that level.
- Gold: The rally has cooled off somewhat, and gold futures remain flat today.
- Oil Futures: Down slightly, by 0.19%.
- Natural Gas: Up significantly today, by 1.85%.
- Bitcoin: BTC climbed by 1.9% today.
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