Earnings Previews: Affirm, Airbnb, Luminar, Occidental Petroleum, Rivian

In the first half-hour of Monday’s trading, the Dow Jones industrials were down 0.12%, the S&P 500 down 0.13% and the Nasdaq 0.33% lower.

Before U.S. markets opened on Monday, BioNTech beat consensus estimates for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The Germany-based firm also confirmed its earlier estimate of around $5 billion in revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine. Shares traded up 2.5%.

Tyson Foods missed estimates on both the top and bottom lines. In its outlook for fiscal 2023, beef production is expected to decline by 4%, pork production is forecast roughly flat and chicken production is expected to rise by 3%. The company has forecast adjusted operating margins in the three segments ranging from down 2% to up 1% year over year. Shares traded down 13.1%.

Devon Energy, Lucid and Palantir are on deck to report results after U.S. markets close on Monday, with Duke Energy, Fox, Fisker and Nikola set to report results the following morning.

The following five companies are scheduled to report quarterly earnings later on Tuesday.

Affirm

Since posting a 12-month low in late December, shares of payment processor Affirm Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM) have risen by more than 24%. Even that sharp increase is not enough to overcome the decline the stock suffered last year. Shares traded down about 60% for the past year.

The company announced a 19% job cut (about 500 people) when it reported quarterly results in February. In a letter to employees, founder and CEO Max Levchin blamed a decline in consumer spending and higher interest rates, along with his failure to act quickly enough to the macro changes. The release due Tuesday afternoon should be a report card on the company’s efforts.

Of 18 analysts covering the stock, only five have a Buy or Strong Buy rating, while 10 others rate it at Hold. At a recent price of around $10.70 a share, the implied upside based on a median price target of $14.00 is 30.8%. Based on the high price target of $18.00, the upside potential for the stock is 68.2%.

Analysts expect Affirm to report fiscal third-quarter revenue of $371.96 million, which would be down 6.9% sequentially but up 4.8% year over year. They also expect the company to report an adjusted loss per share of $0.84, better than the prior quarter’s loss of $1.08 per share and worse than the year-ago loss of $0.19 in the comparable quarter. For the full 2023 fiscal year ending in June, Affirm is expected to post a loss per share of $3.14, worse than last year’s loss of $2.51 per share, on revenue of $1.52 billion, up 12.6%.

Affirm is not expected to post a profit in 2023, 2024 or 2025. The enterprise value to sales multiple is expected to be 4.4 in 2023. Based on average estimated sales of $1.85 billion and $2.31 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, the multiple is 3.6 for 2024 and 2.9 for 2025. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $8.62 to $40.97. Affirm does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 60.36%.

Airbnb

Over the past 12 months, shares of vacation rental provider Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ: ABNB) have declined by 16.2%. Since the beginning of the year, shares are up 40%. CEO Brian Chesky spent six months last year living in Airbnbs. The results of that hejira were some 50 updates and new features for the vacation rental service that Airbnb announced last week. Chesky also said the company expects more than 300 million guests at its locations this year.