Earnings Previews: Affirm, Disney, MGM Resorts, Robinhood

Of 19 analysts covering Affirm stock, seven have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and nine others rate it at Hold. At a recent price of around $17.00, the shares have outrun their median price target of $16.00. Based on the high price target of $46.00, the upside potential for the stock is about 170%.

Analysts expect Affirm to report fiscal second-quarter revenue of $416.33 million, which would be up 15.1% sequentially and by 15.3% year over year. They also expect the company to report an adjusted loss per share of $0.99, worse than the prior quarter’s loss of $0.86 per share and worse than the year-ago loss of $0.57 in the comparable quarter. For the full 2023 fiscal year ending in June, Affirm is expected to post a loss per share of $3.44, worse than last year’s loss of $2.51 per share, on revenue of $1.64 billion, up 21.4%.

Affirm is not expected to post a profit in 2023, 2024 or 2025. The enterprise value to sales multiple is expected to be 4.6 in 2023. Based on average estimated sales of $2.09 billion and $2.59 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, the multiple is 3.6 for 2023 and 2.9 for 2024. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $8.62 to $83.57. Affirm does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 72.9%.

Disney

Over the past 12 months, Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) has seen its share price decline by more than 22%. Since Disney brought back CEO Roger Iger in mid-November, the stock price has risen by more than 12%, but Disney’s difficulties run much deeper. What will matter when the Dow component reports first-quarter results is what Iger plans to do to right the ship. The company has come under attack from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who wants to strip Disney World of its special tax status, streaming growth has slowed and Steamboat Willie has lost trademark protection.

Analysts remain solidly bullish on the stock. Of 30 brokerages covering the firm, 25 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and the rest rate the shares at Hold. At a price of around $110.00 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $120.00 is about 9.1%. At the high target of $177.00, the upside potential is nearly 61%.

First-quarter fiscal 2023 revenue is forecast at $23.29 billion, up 15.6% sequentially and 6.7% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $0.79, down 164.5% sequentially and by 25.5% year over year. For the fiscal year ending in September, analysts expect Disney to report EPS of $4.15, up 17.7%, on sales of $90.57 billion, up 9.5%.

Disney stock trades at 26.4 times expected 2023 earnings, 20.6 times estimated 2024 earnings of $5.33 per share and 17 times estimated 2025 earnings of $6.46 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $84.07 to $157.50. The Mouse House does not pay a dividend, and total shareholder return for the past year was negative 22.64%.

MGM Resorts

Resort and casino operator MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) has seen its share price slip by about 7.4% over the past 12 months. From a high almost exactly one year ago, the stock fell to a yearly low in June and bounced back to gain 52% since. The lockdowns in China drove a third-quarter loss per share, and those lockdowns were not lifted until the fourth quarter was in the books. The company’s mobile betting app and more visitors to Las Vegas helped mitigate the losses in China but are unlikely to overcome them.

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