Rival MasterCard’s SpendingPulse report for the holiday season showed retail sales up 8% year over year. But inflation raised prices by more than 7%. Doubts about consumers’ ability to pay credit card debt have caused several banks to increase their provisions for losses. It is hard to see how Amex can avoid a similar fate.
Analysts remain lukewarm on the stock. Of 26 brokerages covering the firm, 13 have a Hold rating and another 10 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a recent price of around $155.30 a share, the implied gain based on a median price target of $166.00 is about 6.9%. At the high price target of $201.00, the upside potential rises to 29.4%.
Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast to rise sequentially by about 5.1% to $14.25 billion. That would be a jump of about 17.4% year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $2.24, down 9.4% sequentially but 2.8% higher year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year, analysts are looking for EPS of $9.97, down 0.5%, on revenue of $52.87 billion, up 24.8%.
The stock trades at about 115.6 times expected 2022 EPS, 14.9 times estimated 2023 earnings of $10.45 and 13.0 times estimated 2024 earnings of $11.92 per share. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $130.65 to $199.55, and American Express pays an annual dividend of $2.08 (yield of 1.35%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was negative 0.9%.
Chevron
Over the past 12 months, shares of Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) have risen by 42.2%. Since peaking at around $124 a barrel in March, the price of oil has dropped to around $80, a dip of $10 a barrel since Chevron reported third-quarter earnings. In late December, the company was authorized by the federal government to resume shipments of Venezuelan crude to the United States. That will have little effect on fourth-quarter results but should help the company’s results for the six-month term of the license. Chevron reports results early Friday, and a dividend increase could also be in the cards.
Analysts’ sentiment remains solid. Of the 29 brokerages covering Chevron, 14 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and 12 have Hold ratings. At a share price of around $181.00, the upside potential based on a median price target of $193.00 is 6.6%. At the high price target of $236.00, the upside potential is 30.4%.
Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $53.97 billion, down 19% sequentially but 12.1% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $4.29, down 22.8% sequentially and up 67.6% year over year. For the full 2022 year, analysts expect Chevron to post EPS of $19.16, up 135.7%, on revenue of $239.21 billion, up 47.2%.
Chevron stock trades at 9.4 times expected 2022 EPS, 11.3 times estimated 2023 earnings of $16.07 and 12.1 times estimated 2024 earnings of $14.91 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $125.27 to $189.68. Chevron pays an annual dividend of $5.68 (yield of 3.14%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 47.3%.
Intel
Shares of Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) have dropped by more than 42% over the past 12 months. The chipmaker continues to face challenges in the enterprise and data center markets, where rival AMD is putting up stiffer competitive silicon. PC sales are not going to help with the past quarter’s results and offer no improvement in the next several months.
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