Earnings Previews: CarMax, Micron, Paychex

First-quarter fiscal 2023 revenue is forecast at $4.14 billion, down 37.6% sequentially and by 46.2% year over year. Analysts expect an adjusted loss per share of $0.02, down from EPS of $1.45 in the prior quarter and $2.16 in the first fiscal quarter of 2022. For the full fiscal year ending in August, revenue is forecast at $17.82 billion, down 42.1%, and the full-year loss is forecast at $0.49, compared to last year’s EPS of $8.35.

Micron stock trades at 16.1 times estimated 2024 EPS of $3.22 and 11.9 times estimated 2025 earnings of $4.36 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $48.45 to $98.45, and Micron pays an annual dividend of $0.46 (yield of 0.88%). Total return over the past 12 months was negative 37.3%.

Paychex

Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) is the country’s second-largest integrated human resources outsourcer of staffing and employment services such as payroll and insurance. The stock has dropped about 6.8% from its share price over the past 12 months but has tumbled by 16% since posting a recent high in mid-August.

Paychex has only missed EPS estimates once since the October 2018 quarter and missed sales estimates only twice during the same period. Results during the pandemic lockdowns exceeded estimates in every quarter. Employment continues to grow, and that is good for the company. Less good would be more worries over a recession caused by Federal Reserve overtightening, and that seems to be the prevailing concern for equities (not just Paychex) these days.

Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 14 have a Hold rating and three rate the shares at Buy or Strong Buy. At a price of around $115.50 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $125.50 is 8.7%. The high price target of $140.00 implies an upside of about 21.2% to the current price.

Analysts expect revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 to come in at $1.18 billion, down 2.5% sequentially but up 6.3% year over year. Adjusted EPS are expected to be $0.96, down 6.7% sequentially but 5.5% higher year over year. For the full fiscal year ending in May, analysts forecast EPS of $4.18, up 10.8%, and revenue of $4.97 billion, up 7.8%.

Paychex stock trades at 27.6 times expected 2023 EPS, 25.9 times estimated 2024 earnings of $4.46 and 23.9 times estimated 2025 earnings of $4.84 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $105.66 to $141.92. Paychex pays an annual dividend of $3.16 (yield of 2.73%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was negative 4.4%.

Originally published at 24/7 Wall St.

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