Earnings Previews: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Silvergate Capital

Sentiment on the stock remains bullish, with 17 of 27 brokerages assigning a Buy or Strong Buy rating. Another nine have a Hold. At a share price of around $89.90, the upside potential based on a median price target of $97.00 is 9%. At the high target of $125.00, the upside potential is 39%.

The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter revenue is $12.6 billion, down 3.0% sequentially and by 13.2% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.31, down 14.3% sequentially and 37.0% lower year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year, analysts are looking for revenue of $53.58 billion, down 10.3%, and EPS of $6.44, down by 21.7%.

Morgan Stanley stock trades at 13.9 times expected 2022 EPS, 12.3 times estimated 2023 earnings of $7.31 and 10.8 times estimated 2024 earnings of $8.32 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $72.05 to $109.73, and the bank pays an annual dividend of $3.10 (yield of 3.42%). Total shareholder return over the past year was negative 9.52%.

Silvergate Capital

Not many banks are likely to suffer the way Silvergate Capital Corp. (NYSE: SI) has over the past 12 months. The stock is down 90% for the year, including a drop of almost 22% in the past two weeks alone.

The bank that tied its fortunes to being a financial services provider for the crypto industry said last week that it will take a charge of $196 million in the fourth quarter and fire 40% of its workforce. Customers withdrew $8.1 billion in digital assets during the fourth quarter, forcing the firm to issue $5.2 billion in debt at a loss of $718 million. New pressure on crypto assets from the Securities and Exchange Commission will not give investors more confidence in digital assets, and that could make Silvergate’s tenuous position even worse.

Sentiment remains slightly bullish, with four of 11 brokerages having a Buy or Strong Buy rating and five more rating the shares at Hold. At a price of around $14.30, shares are trading above their median price target of $14.00. At the high target of $38.00, the upside potential is almost 166%.

The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter revenue is negative $778 million, down from $89.34 million sequentially and from $51.7 million in the year-ago period. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.72, down about 44% sequentially but up 9.1% year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year, analysts are looking for revenue of negative $525.36 million, down from $174.52 million last year, and EPS of $3.94, up 44.3%.

Silvergate stock trades at 3.6 times expected 2022 EPS, 10.3 times estimated 2023 earnings of $1.37 and 8.8 times estimated 2024 earnings of $1.61 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $10.81 to $162.65. The bank does not pay an annual dividend. Total shareholder return over the past year was negative 89.6%.

Originally published at 24/7 Wall St.

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