Earnings Previews: Norwegian Cruise Lines, ON Semiconductor, SoFi Technologies

Norwegian Cruise Lines

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NCLH) had staged a decent comeback in 2023, until it reported fourth-quarter results. From a peak year-to-date gain of around 50% in mid-February, the stock has dropped nearly 30%. When Norwegian reported fourth-quarter results at the end of February, the company guided its first-quarter loss below the consensus estimate and said that costs would continue to rise. Higher borrowing costs could make taking on more debt problematic as the company struggles to recover from the pandemic.

Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 10 have a Buy rating and seven have Hold ratings. At a recent share price of around $12.50, the upside potential based on a median price target of $16.50 is 32%. At the high target of $27.00, the implied gain is 116%.

First-quarter revenue is forecast to come in at $1.75 billion, which would be up 14.9% sequentially and more than triple the revenue in the year-ago quarter. Analysts expect the company to post a per-share loss of $0.43, better than the prior quarter’s loss of $1.04 per share and well below the year-ago quarterly loss of $1.82. For the full year, Norwegian is expected to post EPS of $0.74, compared to last year’s loss of $6.64 per share. Revenue is forecast to reach $8.5 billion, up 75.5%.

Norwegian stock trades at 16.9 times expected 2023 earnings, 8.1 times estimated 2024 earnings of $1.54 and 5.9 times estimated 2025 earnings of $2.12 per share. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $10.31 to $21.05, and the company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 37.13%.

ON Semiconductor

Chipmaker ON Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: ON) posted an all-time high share price in early February. The stock is up 40% over the past 12 months, including a 15% gain to date in 2023.

The not-so-good news is that the share price has fallen by more than 12% so far in April on reports that U.S. automakers could cut chip orders by as much as 20% in the current quarter due to a lack of demand for new cars. And that comes just after the shortage of automotive chips finally began to untangle. What appears to be happening is that the industry’s ability to produce chips has met up with automakers’ demands at a lower point than hoped for.

Of the 29 analysts covering the stock, 20 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating on it. The others rate the stock at Hold. At a share price of around $72.00, the implied upside based on a median price target of $93.00 is 29.2%. At the high price target of $105.00, the implied gain is 45.8%.

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