Australia’s largest gold mining giant Newcrest (AU:NCM) grabbed local headlines on Monday after confirming they had received a non-binding takeover offer from Colorado based gold mining company Newmont Corp (NEM).
NCM shares traded 9.3% higher on Monday following the announcement, closing at $24.53 per share. The rally brings Newcrests’ total return to 50% from its annual low point reached in September of 2022.
News of the announcement was initially speculated by local business newspaper “Australian Financial Review” on Sunday afternoon.
Newcrest in a press release confirmed that Newmont Corp proposed to acquire all shares in the company at an exchange ratio of 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share held.
The offer implies about $27 per share of value for Newcrest holders representing a ~20% premium to NCM’s closing share price on Friday. The transaction has an implied total value just shy of $17 billion USD (or around $24.5 billion in AUD).
Newcrest management explained to the market that the latest offer is a step-up from an initial proposal which offered a ratio of 0.363 NEM shares for each NCM share held.
Management had not communicated the prior offer to the market as they believed it did not offer “compelling value” to shareholders and hence rejected the earlier proposal.
Newcrests’ management is currently considering the latest proposal with advisors JP Morgan and Greshham Partners in its corner and Herbert Smith Freehills on the legal side.
The transaction if proceeding will be subject to a number of conditions including shareholder approval and regulatory approvals.
The proposal will also consider establishing a Newmont listing of CDI’s on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) so that local holders can continue to trade shares domestically.
If the deal is successful, it will be one of the largest mining related M&A transactions in Australia’s history.
In the Financial Review article from Sunday, the reporter also highlighted that Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Barrick Gold (GOLD) could be other possible suitors that are currently interested in the group.
Jefferies investment bank analyst Mitch Ryan discussed in a report later on Monday that he thinks there is still upside to the initial offer from Newmont and could attract other bidders as the deal is now in public view.
During Newcrest mining’s most recent quarterly operational update, the company reported production of 512,000 ounces of gold and 35,000 tonnes of copper at similar levels to the prior year.
For the full 2023 financial year, Newcrest expects that it will generate between 2.1 to 2.4 million ounces of gold with 135,000 to 155,000 tonnes of copper.
Fintel’s consensus forecast for NEM of $55.74 suggests the stock could have 11.82% capital upside in 2023. Analysts are forecasting revenue to remain flat over the year, decreasing by -1.9% in 2023.
This article originally appeared on Fintel
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