The Stock Market Opens Green Again Despite Retail Sales Missing

The stock market rallied on Friday and ended the week on a positive note. Today, the stock market has recovered even more after retail sales data came in. Investors previously expected the stock market to open lower due to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement that said “corrections are healthy” on Sunday. This is on top of Trump looking comfortable with some pain. On the other hand, Howard Lutnick called a GDP contraction in Q1 “ridiculous” last Friday.

The stock market still bounced back today due to strength in chip stocks and lower T-note yields.

U.S. retail sales data edged up, though it did miss expectations. Retail sales rose 0.2% (seasonally adjusted) in February and sales figures for the prior month were revised lower. Analysts expected a 0.6% increase. All eyes are on macros, as they will decide what could come out of the FOMC meeting later this week.

Here is a market update as of 10:30 AM (ET) today.

• S&P 500 is up 0.46%, or 26.04 points.
• The Nasdaq Composite is down 0.15%, or 26.69 points.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.44%, or 182.6 points.

Key Macroeconomic Data Today

• Retail Sales Data Missed: While the seasonally adjusted retail sales data grew, the unadjusted data came in flat year-over-year. Minus autos, retail sales matched expectations, and the control group (core retail sales minus volatile categories) came in three times as high as expected. The market didn’t plunge on the news, likely due to core retail still being hot and stocks being oversold from the selloff earlier this month.
• U.S. Business Inventories Data: Business inventories data also came in this morning and matched expectations at 0.3% month-over-month. It was previously -0.2%.
• U.S. NAHB Housing Market: The housing market data released this morning stated that builder confidence fell on cost uncertainty. It was down three points from February to 39 in March for newly-built single-family homes. In fact, this is the lowest level in seven months.
• NY Fed Manufacturing Data Craters: The manufacturing data came in at -20.0 in March. This is significantly below the -1.9 consensus. Last month, it was 5.7. This aligns with Michigan’s low consumer sentiment data on Friday. It may point to a country-wide trend of low demand.

Geopolitical Events In Play Today

Tariff fears have taken center stage in the past few months. While macro data has been somewhat satisfactory, the uncertainty regarding tariffs remains. Here are some things to keep in mind:

• The E.U. said it would probe aluminum imports that were redirected by Trump’s tariffs. This is to protect the bloc’s industry from a surge in cheap imports.
• President Donald Trump is expected to talk with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. Before the meeting, Vladimir Putin announced he would allow some international funds to sell Russian securities. This includes American ones.
• The OECD said that the U.S. tariff increases will slow global economic growth and push inflation higher worldwide.
• The U.S. airstrikes on Yemen drove up crude oil futures by 1%. China stimulus news also helped drive up oil.
• Natural gas opened lower.

Alternative Assets

Alternative assets have been surging due to risks returning to the U.S. market. Gold leads the pack.

• Gold has added around $5 trillion in market value over the past year. The total market capitalization has surged from $8 trillion just six years ago to $20.1 trillion today as investors de-risk portfolios.
• Bitcoin has declined this morning, despite an earlier bump. It is almost unchanged in the past 24 hours. The crypto fear and greed index now sits at 32/100 (fear); this is up from ”extreme fear” last week.

By Omor Ibne Ehsan