Global equity markets have staged a relief rally since bottoming out in October of 2022, with the MSCI World Index broadly flat on a 1 year basis.
The Fintel platform helps to provide a picture of the outlook for specific countries by examining how the market treats the most popular ETFs which make broad investments into each country’s leading stocks.
The Macro Country View screener highlights which countries have been experiencing the greatest increases and decreases in institutional ownership over the last quarter.
The list has been dominated by European, Central and South American countries over the quarter.
Countries with the greatest outflows
Sweden (EWD / iShares MSCI Sweden ETF) has seen the fifth largest ownership decline of -10.5% during the quarter with a decline in portfolio allocation of -27.1%.
The EWD ETF recovered 18.6% during the final quarter of 2022 and has rallied a further 8% in 2023. The Swedish ETF remains around -30% below pandemic highs experienced over 2021. The Swedish economy grew real GDP by around 3% over 2022 and is forecast to decrease by -0.6% in 2023 as the country heads into recession.
Peru (EPU / iShares MSCI Peru ETF) is fourth on the list with a -15.6% decline in ownership during the quarter. Over the same period, the average portfolio allocation has skyrocketed by 750%.
The EPU ETF rose around 16.7% during the quarter and has gained a further 3.8% in 2023. The Peruvian economy grew by around 2.7% over 2022 and is expected to experience similar growth rates in 2023. The World Bank highlighted that fundamentals in the country remain solid with low public debt to GDP and considerable international reserves.
Argentina (ARGT / Global X MSCI Argentina ETF) ownership has declined -20% over the last quarter while the average portfolio allocation rose 3.6% during this period.
The ARGT ETF strengthened 17.6% during the last quarter and has extended its rally by a further 14% in 2023. The Argentinian economy is expected to report growth of around 5.3% for 2022 and is expected to slow to a figure of below 1% in 2023.
Portugal (PGAL / Global X MSCI Portugal ETF) has seen the second largest decline in ownership of -33.3% during the quarter. The average portfolio allocation declined by -93.7% during this period.
The PGAL ETF rose around 15% over the December quarter, recovering from its low point of the year. The ETF has traded up marginally in 2023 but has moved relatively sideways over the last 5 years.
Portugal’s economy grew by 6.7% over 2022 with growth expected to slow to a figure below 1% in 2023.
Pakistan (PAK / Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF) has experienced the greatest decline in ownership over the quarter. The number of owners has declined by -40% and the average portfolio allocation has declined by -96.3%.
The PAK ETF traded broadly flat over the December quarter and has declined around -10% during 2023. The Pakistani economy grew by around 6% over 2022 and is expected to post growth of around 3.5% in 2023.
Countries with the greatest inflows
Mexico (EWW / iShares MSCI Mexico ETF) is fifth on the list with 10.6% growth in ownership during the quarter. The average portfolio allocation has also increased by 12.9% during this period.
The EWW ETF rose 11.8% during the quarter, pushing the ETF into positive territory for the year. In 2023 the ETF rose a further 14%, extending gains from the prior year. Mexico’s real GDP reportedly grew by around 2.5% over 2022 and is expected to slow to around 1.6% in 2023.
Chile (ECH / iShares MSCI Chile ETF) has been the fourth most popular trade during the quarter with 11% growth in ownership during the quarter. The average portfolio allocation has declined by -20.6% during this same period.
The ECH ETF rallied 12.9% during the December quarter and has risen 8% in 2023. The Chilean economy is expected to post 1.9% of growth for 2022 with growth set to contract by around -0.5% in 2023.
Greece (GREK / Global X MSCI Greece ETF) has been the third most popular trade by institutions with total ownership growing 14.3% during the quarter. Over the same period, the average portfolio allocation has declined -1% during this period.
The GREK ETF rose around 25.6% during the quarter and has extended gains by a further 17.3% since the start of 2023. The Greek economy grew by around 5.1% for 2022 and is expected to fall to below 1% in 2023.
Turkey (TUR / iShares MSCI Turkey ETF) has experienced the second largest increase in owners during the quarter. TUR experienced a 24.6% rise in the number of owners in recent months as the ETF has mounted significant gains rising 50% during the December quarter.
Over the second half of 2022 the ETF’s price doubled but has recently started to decline in 2023 following the Kahramanmaras earthquake which has thrown the country into crisis mode with widespread destruction of infrastructure. In 2023 the ETF retreated -20.7% from highs.
The Turkish economy grew by around 5.3% over 2022 and was originally forecasted to grow by around 3% over 2023 before the latest crisis.
Denmark (EDEN / iShares MSCI Denmark ETF) currently tops the list for the most significant inflows during the quarter. Ownership of the EDEN ETF has grown by 33.3% over the quarter while the average portfolio allocation has declined by -14.7%.
The EDEN ETF has rallied a whopping 30.5% during the quarter and has extended gains by a further 4.5% in 2023. The Denmark ETF has recovered the majority of the losses experienced over 2022 and is on track to reach levels towards all-time highs indicating strong bullish sentiment for the Danish economy.
The Danish economy grew by around 3% in 2022 and is expected to remain flat in 2023.
This article originally appeared on Fintel
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