September is the worst month of the year for stocks, but the real scary month this year could be October, and not just because of the potential for a spooky Halloween. With third-quarter earnings on deck, typical seasonal worries and what most likely will be another 75-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate, the analysts at Goldman Sachs are urging investors to avoid investing in the indexes and focus on single stocks for alpha generation.
In a new research report targeted toward options trading going forward this fall, Goldman Sachs stresses that volatility could jump sharply in October. The analysts had this to say when discussing why:
We expect volatility to increase over the next month, driven by a seasonal pickup in investor uncertainty, significant monetary policy catalysts, including monthly inflation metrics and upcoming single stock catalysts, including analyst days. On average, over the past 94 years, S&P 500 volatility has increased 29% from August to October. While some consider it a coincidence that major market corrections have occurred in October, we believe performance pressures for company managements (to meet full year expectations) and investors (final earnings catalysts for their performance year) exacerbate shifts in investor sentiment at this time of year.
Given those concerns, we screened the firm’s Conviction List of top stock picks for good ideas for what could be a very dangerous stretch to what already has been a lousy year for investors. This week’s consumer price index numbers all but confirmed that we are in for the aforementioned 75-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate next week, so safe dividend-paying picks are the way to go for now. We found seven from the Goldman Sachs Conviction List that make sense now.
It is important to remember that no single analyst report should be used as the sole basis for any buying or selling decision.
Constellation Brands
If any company has products that stay in style, it is this one, and it has only 7% foreign sales. Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) is a leading global producer and marketer of beverage alcohol. Its wideanging portfolio spans wine, spirits and imported beer.
The company is one the world’s largest wine companies overall and is the largest global premium wine company. Key brands include Robert Mondavi, Clos du Bois, Blackstone, Arbor Mist, Black Velvet and SVEDKA vodka. It also owns 100% of the rights to brew, market and sell Modelo’s Mexican beers in the United States.
Constellation Brands made a gigantic $3.8 billion investment in cannabis company Canopy Growth in 2018 to increase its holdings in the company. The record investment reflects a world in which marijuana has become ubiquitous as its counterculture stigma fades and more states legalize use.
Constellation Brands stock investors receive a 1.30% dividend. Goldman Sachs has a price target of $273, and the consensus target is $275.40. The stock closed on Tuesday at $240.11.
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