Sales peaked in the April quarter of 2021 and have been on a downward trend since, closing the first quarter of this year more than 35% lower. Bloomberg reported earlier this month that the company had retained AlixPartners to help reverse Big Lots course. Investors will want to hear more about what the company plans to do.
Analyst sentiment tends toward the downside. Of 10 brokerages covering the stock, five have a Strong Sell rating and four have Hold ratings. At a share price of around $6.00, the stock trades right at its median price target. At the high target of $13.00, the upside potential is about 117%.
Fiscal 2024 second-quarter revenue is forecast at $1.1 billion, down 2% sequentially and by 18.5% year over year. Analysts expect an adjusted loss per share of $4.12, worse than the prior quarter’s loss of $3.40 per share and worse than the year-ago quarter’s loss of $2.28 per share. For the full fiscal year ending in January, the consensus estimates call for an adjusted loss of $9.88 per share compared to last year’s loss per share of $5.96 on sales of $4.84 billion, down 11.4%.
Big Lots is not expected to post a profit in 2024 or 2025. The enterprise value to sales multiple is 0.5 in each of those years. The 52-week trading range is $4.78 to $24.35. Big Lots pays an annual dividend of $1.20 (yield of 19.67%, and that’s not a typo), and the total shareholder return for the past year was negative 71.80%.
Nio
China-based EV maker Nio Inc. (NYSE: NIO) has lost nearly 44% from its share price over the past 12 months. The stock price has increased by more than 9% so far in 2023, including a 50% bounce between mid-July and early August based on improving EV sales in China. Since that peak, the stock has given back all but about 3% of the increase.
The Tesla-spawned price war in China has been especially hard on Nio, and the struggling Chinese economy is not providing any support for EV makers or buyers. Analysts have dramatically reduced their revenue expectations for Nio’s second quarter, and that will give the company a decent chance to slip over a low bar. What that will mean depends on Nio beating estimates by a big margin. That probably will not happen.
There are 27 analyst ratings on Nio’s stock, and 18 are Buy or Strong Buy. At a share price of around $10.60, the upside potential based on a median price target of $14.26 is around 34.5%. At the high target of $20.79, the upside potential is 96.2%.
For the second quarter of fiscal 2023, the consensus estimates call for revenue of $1.26 billion, down 19.2% sequentially and 18.2% lower year over year. Nio is forecast to post an adjusted loss per share of $0.41, worse than the $0.37 loss in the prior quarter and worse than the year-ago loss of $0.20 per share. For the full year, the company is expected to report a per-share loss of $1.25, worse than the $1.06 loss in 2022, on sales of $8.82 billion, up 23.5%.
Analysts do not expect Nio to produce a profit in 2023, 2024 or 20425. The enterprise value to sales multiple is expected to be 2.1 in 2023. Based on average estimated sales of $13.37 billion and $17.4 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, the multiple is 1.4 for 2024 and 1.1 for 2025. The 52-week trading range is $7.00 to $22.74. The company does not pay a dividend, and the total shareholder return for the past year is negative 43.61%.
Originally published at 24/7 Wall St.
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