Lucid
Electric vehicle (EV) maker Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID) has had a terrible year. The stock has lost about 64% of its value over the past 12 months, including an 8% increase to date in 2023. The company needs to sell more vehicles. Sales last year totaled around 4,400, compared to production of more than 7,000. Lucid originally planned to produce 22,000 cars last year, but supply chain constraints could not be overcome. That led to canceled orders. The good news is that a secondary offering in December added $1.5 billion to Lucid’s cash pile.
Of 11 analysts covering the stock, five have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and five more rate the shares at Hold. At a share price of around $7.40, the upside potential based on a median price target of $10.00 is 35.1%. Based on the high target of $16.00, the upside potential is 116%.
Analysts expect the company to report 2023 first-quarter revenue of $211.53 million, 17.9% lower sequentially but up from $57.67 million in the year-ago quarter. The consensus forecast calls for an adjusted loss of $0.41 per share, somewhat better than the prior quarter’s loss of $0.43 per share, and four cents worse than the loss in the year-ago quarter. For the full fiscal year, the loss per share is forecast at $1.44, down from last year’s loss of $2.25 per share, on sales of $1.36 billion, up nearly 125%.
Lucid is not expected to report a profit in 2023, 2024 or 2025. The enterprise value to sales multiple is expected to be 7.8 in 2023. Based on average estimated sales of $3.35 billion and $6.33 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, the multiple is 3.6 for 2024 and 1.9 for 2025. The stock’s 52-week range is $6.09 to $21.78. Lucid does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 63.57%.
Palantir
Over the past 12 months, shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) have declined by nearly 33%, including a 15% gain so far in 2023. But year-over-year revenue growth has slowed from 47% in 2021 to $24% last year, and a company forecast of just 14% to 17% for this year. Are macro trends or more competitors the issue? Is it spending too much? Likely all three, and investors will be interested in Palantir’s success in dealing with those headwinds.
Of 17 analysts covering the stock, just three have Buy ratings, while nine have a Hold rating. At a share price of around $7.40, the implied upside to the median price target of $8.00 is 8.1%. At the high price target of $15.00, the potential upside is more than 100%.
The consensus first-quarter revenue estimate is $505.94 million, down 0.5% sequentially but 13.3% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.04, flat sequentially and up 50% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year, estimates call for EPS of $0.20, up 237.1%, on sales of $2.2 billion, up 15.6%.
The stock trades at 36.5 times expected 2023 EPS, 29.9 times estimated 2024 earnings of $0.25 and 24.0 times estimated 2025 earnings of $0.31 per share. Palantir stock’s 52-week range is $5.84 to $13.62, and the company does not pay a dividend. The total shareholder return for the past year is negative 32.79%.
Originally published at 24/7 Wall St.
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