S&P 500 Nears All-Time Highs With Trade Talks Optimism and Chips Strength

Published: June 10, 2025 by Omor IE

Key Points

The sentiment is mildly positive today due to the ongoing trade talks with China.
Chip stocks are still strong.
The S&P 500 is now nearing a new all-time high.
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The S&P 500 has broken through and held above 6,000 points for a while, and the next move up could take it to all-time highs. It is down just 1.85% from its peak close as of writing, and the continued optimism could close the gap in weeks or less. If a U.S.-China trade deal is finalized with the lower end of tariff expectations at 10% on the U.S. side, that may do the trick.

Analysts are optimistic on that front, and that’s mainly why the stock market is up today. Chip stocks have also continued showing strength, with many chip stocks continuing on a winning streak. There haven’t been any tariff escalations recently, and all the macros coming in tilt more on the bullish side. Recession odds have also gone down, but so have growth estimates.

Here’s a market update as of 1:30 PM (ET) today.

The S&P 500 is up 22.88 points, or 0.38%.
The Nasdaq Composite is up 60.69 points, or 0.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 117.87 points, or 0.28%.

U.S.-China Trade Talks

Trade talks between the U.S. and China started yesterday in London. Three of Trump’s top aids are attending: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trade Secretary Scott Bessent, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. On the Chinese side, there is the Chinese vice premier and lead economic representative, He Lifeng.

According to President Donald Trump, the trade talks are going well, and there have been “good reports”.

Current base tariffs on China are at 30%, and the market will certainly rally if “fentanyl” tariffs of 20% are pulled back and the final tariff rate goes down to 10%.

On the other hand, trade talks are also expected to mitigate the export restrictions on rare earth minerals that China had imposed earlier. This could significantly help many key industries that are almost exclusively reliant on China for these minerals.

Macros

There are no major macro figures coming out today. But here’s what we have:

U.S. NFIB Optimism Index came in at 98.8 vs. the 96 forecast.
U.S. Redbook (sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth) came down to 4.7% from 4.9% previously.
World Bank cuts global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4% to 2.3% from 2.7% due to trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
The World Bank cuts U.S. growth forecast by 0.9%% to 1.4% in 2025 and cuts 2026 forecast by 0.4%.
The World Bank leaves China’s forecast for 2025 as-is at 4.5%.
The World Bank downgraded forecasts for nearly 70% of all economies.
The World Bank did clarify it does not see a recession, but the smallest economic growth in over 60 years.