Key Points
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The stock market hasn’t made any big moves so far this morning.
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Housing data has been weaker than expected.
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Trade de-escalation and new investments from the Gulf have offset the slight bearishness.
Today’s session could repeat the same playbook as yesterday, as the stock market is currently lukewarm in the morning, but looks to be charting its way towards yet another positive day. Tariff-related fears seem to have faded, and the weaker macros we saw yesterday weren’t enough to drag down the market.
And until any big-enough negative news comes in, the market may keep recovering as investors get more aggressive with their investments. President Donald Trump has secured nearly $2 trillion in deals from his recent tour of the Middle East, and this has also lifted some stocks.
Here’s a market update as of 10:30 AM (ET) today.
- The S&P 500 is up 5.59 points, or 0.09 %.
- The Nasdaq Composite is up 21.04 points, or 0.1%.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 45.94 points, or 0.11%.
Macros
The macro data coming in today is mixed and slightly on the bearish side. However, the data is not considered to be critical. These misses are unlikely to move the market significantly.
- U.S. Import Prices month-over-month at 0.1% vs. the -0.3% forecast.
- U.S. Export Prices month-over-month at 0.1% vs. the -0.4% forecast.
- U.S. Housing Starts Change month-over-month at 1.6% vs. the 3% forecast.
- U.S. Housing Starts at 1.361 million vs. the 1.364 million forecast.
- U.S. Building Permits at 1.412 million vs the 1.45 million forecast.
- U.S. Building Permits Change month-over-month at -4.7% vs. the -1.2% forecast.
The University of Michigan data also came in today. This isn’t hard data and is based more on expectations and speculation. So far, these expectations have yet to translate into hard data, but it’s worth watching.
- University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations at 7.3% vs. the 6.5% forecast. This is likely due to UMich expecting inflation to be driven up by the current tariff policy. You should keep in mind that recent inflation reports have been on the cooler side.
- University of Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations at 4.6% vs. the 4.4% forecast.
- University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment also came in weaker than expected at 50.8 vs. the 53.4 forecast.
Treasury Yields Ease
Treasury yields have gone down slightly, especially after the recent cooler housing data. In the meantime, the market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady during its June meeting.
The market sees an 8.3% chance of a 25 bps rate cut.
If data continues to come in benign and the trade de-escalation continues, yields are likely to keep going down further in the coming days.
Other Assets
- Gold is down 1.34% to $3,183 today due to market uncertainty coming down with trade deals and tariff pauses.
- Crude Oil Futures are up 0.3%.
- Natural Gas Futures are up 1.96%.
- Bitcoin is mostly flat today at $103,851.
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