Stock Market Falls as Weak Macro Data Makes Fears Resurface

Published: May 15, 2025 by Omor IE

Key Points

The stock market is seeing more selling pressure today due to macro figures coming in weak.
Chip stocks have also gone lower, along with treasury yields fluctuating.
There are also lingering fears regarding the impact of tariffs.
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The stock market could be on the cusp of ending a four-day winning streak today. Macroeconomic data has come in slightly weaker than expected for some metrics. Positive developments surrounding tariffs also seem to be priced in. The tariff “pause” caused a bump, but many believe that the 30% tariffs on China could still cause inflation to go up substantially in the coming months.

The semiconductor sector is also seeing some weakness. In combination, Treasury yields have seen higher volatility. All of that is causing the stock market to change course.

The stock market could still end the day on a more positive note. President Donald Trump is currently on a Middle East tour, and big investment announcements from there could lift the stock market.

Here’s a market update as of 10:30 AM (ET) today.

The S&P 500 is down 19.33 points, or 0.33%.
The Nasdaq Composite is down 142.89 points, or 0.74%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 131.81 points, or 0.31%.

Macros

The macros coming out today aren’t terrible, but they are weaker than expected. The economy seems to be slowing down even more, and if this trend continues, you may see a negative Q2 GDP reading. This would imply a technical recession.

U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 34 vs. the 40 forecast. Readings below 50 mean builder sentiment is getting worse.
U.S. Core PPI year-over-year came in at 3.1% and met the 3.1% forecast.
U.S. PPI month-over-month came in at -0.5% and sharply missed the 0.2% forecast.
U.S. Business Inventories month-over-month came in at 0.1% vs. the 0.2% forecast.
U.S. Retail Sales year-over-year came in at 5.16%.
U.S. Retail Sales month-over-month at 0.1% vs. the 0% forecast.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 229,000 vs. the 227,500 forecast.
U.S. Industrial Production month-over-month at 0% vs. the 0.1% forecast.
U.S. Manufacturing Output came in at -0.4% vs. the -0.3% forecast.

Regardless of these slightly bearish results, the Q1 earnings season has been quite good. 80% of companies in the S&P 500 have already reported quarterly results. 77% have beaten estimates.

Fed’s Powell Speaks

The Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell made the following notable comments today:

“We may be entering a period of more frequent supply shocks.”
“Certain aspects of the Fed’s approach are permanent, such as the focus on inflation expectations.”
“The idea of a moderate overshoot of inflation following weakness became irrelevant given the levels [of] inflation reached.”
“April PCE likely around 2.2%.”
“Officials agree strategic language around both shortfalls of employment and average inflation need to be reconsidered.”

Other Assets

Crude Oil Futures are down 2.8%. This is mainly due to higher supply and claims from the Trump administration that a deal with Iran may be close. Such a deal would likely include the lifting of sanctions. In turn, Iran could export more oil and increase available supply even more.
Natural Gas Futures are down 1.8%.
Gold is up 0.53% to $3,205.
Bitcoin is down 1.51% to $101,997.