Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading around $64,200 today, nearly 49% below its record high of $126,273 reached in October 2025. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 several times in June and ended June 30 around $58,600, its lowest level since 2024.
Since then, Bitcoin has recovered into the mid-$60,000s, but it has not yet produced the kind of breakout that would make it obvious the bear market is over. That has left investors with a difficult question: Was the late-June drop toward $58,000 the bottom, or could Bitcoin still fall much further?
The forecasts are unusually divided. Standard Chartered and ARK Invest have argued that Bitcoin may already be forming a bottom. Galaxy Research sees considerably more downside, with its base-case analysis putting a potential cycle low between $40,000 and $46,000.
Here is what those forecasts actually say and which Bitcoin price levels investors should be watching.
Standard Chartered Thinks Bitcoin May Have Already Bottomed
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick called a Bitcoin cycle bottom near $59,000 on June 12. His view was that the worst of the crypto downturn was ending, declaring that the crypto “winter” was over and maintaining a bullish outlook for the second half of the year.
One reason for Kendrick’s change in outlook was capital rotation surrounding SpaceX’s enormous June IPO. He argued that some investors had been pulling money from Bitcoin ETFs and other crypto assets to free up capital for the SpaceX offering, rather than abandoning cryptocurrency permanently. SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq on June 12 in what became a record-setting public offering.
That explanation matters because Bitcoin ETF demand has started showing signs of life again. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded five consecutive days of net inflows from August 3 through August 7, bringing in about $865 million combined. However, that streak ended August 10 with approximately $145 million in net outflows.
There is also an obvious problem with calling $59,000 the exact bottom: Bitcoin subsequently went lower. CoinMarketCap’s June 30 historical snapshot puts Bitcoin around $58,559, and the cryptocurrency traded below $58,000 during the late-June selloff.
That does not necessarily destroy Kendrick’s broader argument. A bottom is often better thought of as a range than a single dollar amount. If Bitcoin’s late-June lows hold, his $59,000 call will have been directionally close.
It is also worth remembering that Kendrick has changed his view as conditions changed. In February, Standard Chartered warned that Bitcoin could fall as low as $50,000 before recovering.
Cathie Wood Also Sees Signs Bitcoin Is Bottoming
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has reached a similarly bullish conclusion.
In early July, Wood said Bitcoin appeared to be in a “bottoming process” and that ARK believed it had likely bottomed before resuming its longer-term, highly volatile uptrend. Part of her argument centered on Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold.
The important distinction is that Wood is making a longer-term market call, not promising that Bitcoin will never revisit $58,000 or $60,000.
Bitcoin can experience large short-term drops even within longer bullish trends. That is especially important for investors who may be accustomed to stocks, where a 10% correction is considered significant. Moves of that size are much more common in cryptocurrency.
Galaxy Research Sees a Bitcoin Bottom Near $40,000 to $46,000
Galaxy Research sees the current cycle very differently.
In a June 12 report, Galaxy examined 13 indicators that had appeared around previous Bitcoin cycle bottoms. At the time, only four of the 13 had reached their historical bottoming zones. Several of the strongest capitulation signals had still not appeared.
Timing was another reason for caution.
Previous major Bitcoin cycle lows arrived roughly 12 to 13 months after their respective peaks. When Galaxy published its analysis, Bitcoin was only about eight months removed from its October 2025 record. That historical pattern points toward a potential bottom later in 2026 rather than June.
Galaxy did not give investors one guaranteed bottom price. Instead, it laid out several scenarios.
Its base case is roughly $40,000 to $46,000. A milder downturn could end between approximately $51,000 and $54,000, while a much more severe capitulation could push Bitcoin toward $30,000 to $37,000.
From today’s roughly $64,200 Bitcoin price, $46,000 would represent another decline of about 28%. A drop to $40,000 would mean roughly 38% more downside.
That sounds extreme, but Bitcoin has a long history of producing unusually large drawdowns.
Why Galaxy Is Watching Bitcoin’s Realized Price
A major part of Galaxy’s analysis involves Bitcoin’s realized price.
Unlike the normal market price, realized price is an on-chain cost-basis measure. Each Bitcoin is valued based on the price when it last moved on the blockchain, and those values are used to calculate an average across the circulating supply.
Galaxy’s June analysis put that cost basis around $53,000. Glassnode also placed Bitcoin’s realized price near $53,000 in July.
That makes the low-$50,000 range particularly interesting.
Bitcoin has historically moved toward or below realized price during severe bear markets. Glassnode said in July that a move toward the roughly $53,000 realized-price area remained possible even as the market recovered from its June lows.
From today’s price, a decline to $53,000 would be approximately 17%.
There is an important catch. Realized price can move lower during a selloff because coins change hands at lower prices. Galaxy estimates that if the underlying cost basis fell sharply during another panic, its downside scenarios could also move lower.
So $53,000 should not be treated as a guaranteed floor.
Strategy Is No Longer Providing the Same Bitcoin Buying Support
Another major difference between today’s market and previous Bitcoin rallies is Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR).
The company spent years aggressively accumulating Bitcoin and became one of the cryptocurrency’s largest sources of corporate demand. That pattern has now changed.
Strategy’s own Bitcoin ledger shows that it sold 1,638 Bitcoin during the week reported August 3, followed by another 1,690 Bitcoin in the week reported August 10. Strategy now holds about 840,447 Bitcoin.
The sales are part of a larger shift in how the company manages its balance sheet and preferred securities. MarketWatch reported that Strategy has sold Bitcoin for four consecutive weeks, unloading 6,916 Bitcoin over that period.
That does not mean Strategy has abandoned Bitcoin. It remains an enormous holder. But investors should no longer assume that Strategy will continuously act as a large automatic buyer whenever Bitcoin falls.
Bitcoin ETF Demand Is Improving, But It Is Not Yet Consistent
ETF flows tell a somewhat more encouraging story.
After heavy selling during May and June, spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to net inflows during parts of July and early August. Glassnode’s August 10 market update described institutional flows as one of the more constructive parts of the current Bitcoin picture.
But the recovery is not yet one-directional.
Farside Investors recorded $170.1 million in net Bitcoin ETF inflows on August 3, followed by $211.5 million, $244.4 million, $137.6 million and $101.7 million over the next four trading days. Then August 10 produced a $144.6 million net outflow.
For investors, the trend matters more than any single day. A sustained return of ETF buying would make the bullish bottoming argument stronger. Another extended stretch of redemptions would give the bearish forecasts more credibility.
The Bitcoin Price Levels Investors Should Watch Now
The current market appears to be caught between several important levels.
Glassnode’s late-July research placed the short-term holder cost basis near $69,000. This represents approximately the break-even level for many investors who bought Bitcoin during the previous five months. Bitcoin remains below that level today.
A sustained move above $69,000 would be significant because it would put many recent buyers back into profit and remove an important source of potential selling pressure. From today’s price, Bitcoin needs to gain only about 7.5% to reach that level.
Glassnode also identified a large concentration of Bitcoin supply around $63,000, creating an important near-term support area. Farther below sits the realized-price region around $53,000.
Those levels create a relatively simple roadmap.
Around $69,000 is the first major hurdle for the bulls. The $63,000 area is an important near-term support zone. Around $53,000 is a deeper on-chain valuation level, while Galaxy’s $40,000 to $46,000 range represents a much more severe cycle-bottom scenario.
Has Bitcoin Already Hit Its Bottom?
There is credible evidence on both sides.
The bullish argument is that Bitcoin has already survived a roughly 54% peak-to-trough decline, ETF demand has begun recovering, leveraged speculation has been flushed from the market and Bitcoin has repeatedly found buyers around the upper-$50,000 to low-$60,000 range. Standard Chartered and Cathie Wood believe those conditions are consistent with a bottoming process.
The bearish argument is that several indicators associated with previous Bitcoin cycle bottoms have still not appeared. Galaxy’s research also suggests the timing of the current decline remains shorter than previous full bear-market cycles.
The latest Glassnode data lands somewhere in the middle. Its August 10 report found stronger buying activity, improving institutional flows and less demand for downside protection, but also warned that spot liquidity and underlying network activity remain weak. Glassnode described the market as being in a transitional recovery phase, rather than declaring that a new bull market had begun.
For investors, that may be the most useful way to think about Bitcoin right now.
The late-June low around $58,000 could ultimately prove to be the bottom. But until Bitcoin convincingly pushes through the roughly $69,000 recent-buyer cost basis, there is still meaningful downside risk. A return toward $53,000 would be consistent with important on-chain valuation levels, while Galaxy’s $40,000 to $46,000 scenario represents the more bearish outcome if another major capitulation wave develops.
Trying to identify the exact bottom in advance is nearly impossible. Watching those price levels, ETF flows and institutional buying trends should provide a clearer signal than relying on any single Bitcoin price prediction.