S&P 500 Trades Flat After the OECD Cuts U.S. Growth Forecast

The stock market hasn’t made any big moves so far this morning, and investors are waiting for more hard data to come in. The OECD is mainly to blame for the pessimism today. It released its latest Economic Outlook and downgraded global growth expectations. It sees  2025 global growth at 2.9%, which isn’t that bad from 3.1%. But for the U.S. specifically, the OECD cut its growth estimate to just 1.6% for the year vs. 2.8% in 2024.

The expected slowdown is due to tariffs and uncertainty due to how rapidly policy has been changing. The organization said that more trade barriers will exacerbate the U.S. has been facing. At the same time, some investors are optimistic due to the effects of tariffs waning and trade deals being made. President Donald Trump doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50%, but the stock market still gained by the end of the prior trading session. Today could also repeat that trend of the market heading up near the end of the session.

Here’s a market update as of 10:30 AM (ET) today.

• The S&P 500 is down 2.46 points, or 0.04%.
• The Nasdaq Composite is up 88.66 points, or 0.46%.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 19.8 points, or 0.05%.

Macros

• U.S. Core Durable Goods revised at 0.2% and met the 0.2% forecast.
• U.S. Durable Goods revised year-over-year at -6.3% and also met the forecast at -6.3%.
• U.S. Factory Orders month-over-month at -3.7% vs. the -3.2% forecast. This is a sharp miss that could tilt the market in a more bearish direction, though many think it’s more due to global weakness.
• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings came in at 7.391 million vs. the 7.1 million forecast previously. This is very bullish, since job openings have come in much higher than the consensus. A recession is unlikely as long as there are jobs. But at the same time, hopes for a rate cut have gone down since this means the economy is still “hot”.

Comments from the Federal Reserve

Here are some snippets from Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic’s speech today:

• “I need to see more progress on lowering inflation before supporting a rate cut.”
• “I’m not declaring victory on inflation yet.”
  “There is still a way to go on inflation. Core prices are still an issue.”
• “Unclear right now how tariffs will affect inflation outlook.”
• “Hard data has yet to reflect gloomier sentiment mood.”
• “Job market appears broadly healthy, with some signs of weakness.”
• “There is no sign yet tariffs have boosted inflation.”
• “Recession is not in my forecast right now.”
• “Given a healthy economy, the Fed has time to see how uncertainty resolves.”
• “I am in no hurry to adjust our policy stance.”
• “It’s a tough call to say if the Fed would be cutting rates absent trade uncertainty.”
• “I am very cautious about jumping to cutting rates.”
• “The best monetary policy approach now entails patience.”

Other Assets

• Gold Futures are down 0.9% to $3,365.
• Crude Oil Futures are up 1.55%.
• Natural Gas Futures are down 0.3%.
• Bitcoin is flat at $105,827.