Today Is “Liberation Day.” Here’s How Markets Are Reacting

President Donald Trump has called April 2, 2025, as “Liberation Day.” Today is when his tariff policies will kick in. Tariffs have been a linchpin of Trump’s re-election campaign, and he believes these tariffs will soothe the trading deficit and also raise hundreds of billions for the federal government.

Tariffs have already gone into effect for some major U.S. trading partners. What makes today’s tariffs special is that these reciprocal tariffs will mirror tariffs other countries impose on U.S. exports. The market has already declined significantly over the past few weeks over the possibility that Trump could put a blanket tariff on all countries today.

The stock market is repeating a pattern we’ve seen in each trading session this week, where strong selling action in the early trading hours is followed by a sustained recovery.

Here’s a market update as of 10:00 A.M (ET) today.

• The S&P 500 is down 23.77 points, or 0.42%.
• The Nasdaq Composite is down 77 points, or 0.44%.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 176.48 points, or 0.42%.

What “Liberation Day” Tariffs Could Look Like

There’s a lot of speculation on how aggressively these tariffs are going to be rolled out. Markets are still in the dark regarding specifics, and there has been a lot of chatter about the tariffs being more lenient than previously thought. Trump is expected to announce the details at 4 P.M (ET) at Rose Garden.

For now, we can only speculate.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly told lawmakers that Trump’s tariff announcements are going to set a ceiling instead of a floor, and then they’ll be negotiated downward.

Regardless, it won’t be very surprising if the announcement is completely different, as there have been plenty of sudden tariff policy changes in the past few months.

The markets are likely to rise if tariffs are more dovish than what Wall Street has been pricing in. Conversely, if this is a blanket tariff on all countries, the market could tank. Citi is pricing in an average 10% tariff on 50% of U.S. goods imports.

Macro Data

All eyes are on the tariff announcement today, but some macro data has come in this morning.

• U.S. MBA mortgage applications came in at -1.6% vs. -2% last week.
• The ADP National Employment Report shows a 155,000 increase in private sector jobs. It is much hotter than the forecast of 120,000.
• U.S. durable goods revised came in at 1% vs. the 0.9% forecast.
• U.S. factory orders month-over-month ticked up 0.6% vs the 0.5% forecast.
• U.S. core durable goods revised matched expectations at 0.7%.

Other Assets

• Gold is up 0.34% today.
• Crude oil futures are flat today.
• Natural gas (Henry Hub) is up 2.4% to over $4.
• Bitcoin is up 0.32% in the past 24 hours.

The image featured at the top of this post is ©Pineapple Studio / Getty Images.