Billionaire miner Robert Friedland walked onto the Odd Lots podcast this month with a line that undercuts the entire AI trade. “Without Gallium, there is no Nvidia, no Nvidia chips. Without scandium, rhenium, dysprosium, niobium, tantalum… And unfortunately, all of them are developed by China. They’re not found here in the United States.”
That is a striking claim for a company valued at roughly $5.29 trillion. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) shares last traded at $219.36, up 29.12% over one year and 906.03% over five years. Friedland, founder and executive co-chairman of Ivanhoe Mines, argues Beijing holds a quiet veto over the inputs behind that run.
Blueprint Approvals and a Sept. 24 Backdrop
Friedland told Odd Lots that US manufacturers must hand designs to China’s Military Commission to secure critical metals, and Beijing “can refuse the supply of those metals for any reason or no reason.” He timed the warning to Xi Jinping’s scheduled Sept. 24 US visit. He also disclosed his own interest: “As a miner, I’m being approached by unconventional interest out of Silicon Valley. And we’re talking to the big hyperscalers just saying, my God, we got a problem.” Readers should weigh his commercial stake in the scarcity narrative.
NVIDIA’s filings hint at the pressure without naming gallium. CEO Jensen Huang said on the Q2 FY27 call, “Our entire supply chain is challenged. And everybody is really running flat out.” The company disclosed “no China data center compute revenue in our forward outlook” due to geopolitical uncertainty, and supply commitments that surged to $279.0 billion.
Where AMD, TSMC and MP Materials Sit
The exposure extends beyond NVIDIA. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) has gained 154.02% year to date to $544 on the same demand curve and depends on the same gallium-inflected supply. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM), which fabs NVIDIA’s Blackwell and Vera Rubin silicon, trades at $429.57, up 65.15% over one year. If Beijing tightens gallium licensing, TSMC’s fab feedstock faces risk.
MP Materials (NYSE:MP), the closest US public proxy for critical-minerals reshoring, tells a different story: down 28.89% over one year to $47.51, despite the policy backdrop. That gap between AI multiples and miner multiples is the contradiction Friedland’s warning targets.
What to Watch Next
Q3 FY27 guidance calls for revenue of $108.0 billion plus or minus 2%, with Huang saying “AI has reached its inflection point.” Analysts still carry a $328.66 average target. Keep an eye on any post-Xi export-license language from Beijing, and on NVIDIA’s next 10-Q for fresh disclosure on specialty materials. The same buildout has to be powered, cooled, and fed with specialty inputs by somebody, and we profiled seven of the suppliers riding that wave in a free AI infrastructure report.
Data Sources
- Robert Friedland on Odd Lots: gallium chokepoint quote, Chinese Military Commission blueprint claim, hyperscaler outreach.
- NVIDIA Q2 FY27 earnings call transcript: Jensen Huang supply-chain and China commentary.
- Price performance data for NVDA, AMD, TSM and MP used for stock comparisons.