Key Points
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The stock market could be ending its nine-day streak of positive gains.
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Film tariffs are likely the cause of the decline so far this morning.
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There’s also a lack of trade deals, and investors are now waiting for the Fed meeting.
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The stock market marked nine consecutive days of closing positive last week due to the Trump administration cooling down the stance on tariffs, but that has been interrupted by new tariffs once again on films. These film tariffs have hit media stocks, and although they are unlikely to hurt the broader market too much, it’s still a sign that Trump may not be done with tariffs yet.
On top of that, there have been no major trade deals signed. Wall Street expected trade deals with several major countries. President Trump has been claiming for weeks that at least one trade deal is on the verge of completion with one of the many countries currently in negotiations. There have also been reports of China refusing trade deals before the US pulls back tariffs unilaterally.
Here’s a market update as of 10:15 A.M (ET) today.
- The S&P 500 is down 35.24 points, or 0.62%.
- The Nasdaq Composite is down 125.85 points, or 0.7%.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 85.7 points, or 0.21%.
Macros
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates unchanged this week despite pressure from the Trump administration. In the meantime, here are the macro data we have so far:
- US S&P Services PMI came in at 50.8 vs. 51.2 forecast. (Note: anything above 50 still means an expansion).
- US S&P Composite PMI came in at 50.6 vs. 51.2 forecast.
- US ISM Services prices Paid at 65.1 vs. 61.4 forecast.
- US ISM Services New Orders Actual 52.3 vs. 50.3 forecast.
- US ISM Services Employment Actual 49 vs. 47.1 forecast.
- US Services PMI Actual 51.6 vs. 50.2 forecast.
Here’s what the S&P Global Chief Business Economist Williamson said about the economy:
“While tariff announcements mean manufacturing dominates the news, a worrying backstory is developing in the vastly larger services economy, where business activity and hiring have come closer to stalling in April amid plunging business confidence.”
Tariffs & Trade
The trade war between the US and China is yet to meaningfully cool down. Both sides are putting the ball in each other’s court. China wants the US to pull back tariffs unilaterally, whereas the US wishes to engage in negotiations. Both sides are still talking about de-escalation, and China has said that it is open to cooperating. The new proposed tariffs on movies are also not specific to China.
Regardless, tariffs have been held high for much longer than many would have expected. The longer it goes on, the more companies will see their pre-tariff inventories run out and will be forced to raise prices or take margin hits.
Other Assets
- Crude Oil has slumped 1.4% due to an OPEC+ supply surge. OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected output increase for June.
- Gold Futures are up 2.4%.
- Natural Gas Futures are up 0.5%.
- Bitcoin is down 0.2% to $94,327.
The image featured at the top of this post is ©Openverse.