Wall Street Stabilizes as Fed Chair Powell Testifies, Ceasefire Holds

The stock market has been slightly positive this morning, despite a scarcity of big enough news to markedly swing the market. The sudden Iran-Israel ceasefire declaration after strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend seems to be mostly priced in. All things considered, the whole conflict did not have a big impact on the market. The decline caused by the start of the conflict has been offset by the ceasefire news, and Wall Street is shifting its attention to domestic matters.

The most important of which are interest rate cuts and trade. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been under a lot of criticism by the current administration due to not cutting interest rates despite inflation going down. He has continued to defy calls for lower interest rates and is testifying before a Senate panel today.

Meanwhile, trade is slowly coming back to the headlines. The Middle East conflict has overshadowed trade talks, but with the April tariff pause being slated for an expiry in July, some investors are getting nervous.

Here’s a market update as of 10:45 AM (ET) today.

• The S&P 500 is up 13.61 points, or 0.22%.
• The Nasdaq Composite is up 105.51 points, or 0.53%.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 33 points, or 0.07%.

Latest On the Middle East

Things appear to be finally calming down, as the ceasefire has held. Trump was aggressive early on in restraining both sides, and he managed to stop Israel from carrying out a broader bombing campaign by pressuring them to turn their jet back while on their way.

Things have gone just about as well as they could have for the U.S. Not only was there no big regional war, but the U.S. has managed to strike Iranian nuclear facilities with only a symbolic retaliation from Iran. To what extent those nuclear facilities were damaged is still debatable, but the cost imposed on Iran has been significantly higher than what the U.S. has endured, which is negligible.

Trump said that the U.S. will now meet with Iran and possibly sign an agreement next week, though he believes an agreement with Iran is not necessary. He said, “We don’t see Iran getting back in nuclear business. If Iran back in nuclear business, we’ll be there.” However, he also said that “…can it start again? I guess someday, it can. It could maybe start soon.”

Macros

• EIA Crude Oil Inventories came in at -5.836 million vs. the forecast of -1.1 million.
• EIA Gasoline Inventories at -2.075 million vs. the forecast of 0.5 million.
• EIA Distillate Inventories at -4.066 million vs. the forecast of 1 million.
• EIA Crude Cushing Inventories at -0.464 million.
• U.S. New Home Sales Change month-over-month at -13.7% vs. the -6.7% forecast.
• U.S. New Home Sales in Units at 0.623 million units vs. the forecast of 0.693 million units.
• U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications grew at 1.1%.
• U.S. MBA 30-year mortgage rate stands at 6.88%.

Other Assets

• Gold is flat today at $3,336.
• Crude Oil Futures are up 1.3% to $65.2 today. That said, it is down 11.3% over the past five days due to the ceasefire in the Middle East.
• Natural Gas Futures are down 1.67% to $3.48.
• Bitcoin is up 1.63% to $107,769.

The image featured at the top of this post is ©federalreserve / Flickr.