“Wireless Is Ultimately a Scale Game”: A William Blair Analyst Says SpaceX Would Rather Partner Than Build Its Own Network

SpaceXSPCX is preparing to challenge wireless carriers directly. But Louie DiPalma, space and satellites analyst at William Blair, sees a different path. DiPalma said “For SpaceX, they ultimately would rather partner with one of the wireless carriers versus building out their own cellular network. And this partnership is called an MVNO.”

What an MVNO Deal Actually Means

MVNO stands for mobile virtual network operator. A company sells wireless service under its own brand while customers’ calls and data travel over a carrier’s existing network. The reseller owns the customer relationship and billing; the carrier owns and runs the towers.

Why Building a Rival Network Is So Hard

Scale is central to DiPalma’s argument. DiPalma said SpaceX’s Starlink rests on “11,000 satellites in low earth orbit,” and “Wireless is ultimately a scale game.” He said the three national carriers each have approximately 70,000 towers and have spent over $100 billion on spectrum over the past several decades.

Terrestrial infrastructure built over decades gives the carriers a structural advantage over a satellite constellation. Satellites cover wide areas from orbit; tower networks carry heavy traffic through cities and buildings. Each handles a different problem.

A Spectrum Arms Race That Will Take Years

DiPalma said SpaceX will need “many more moves similar to the Grain Management acquisition,” announced this week. He also said SpaceX announced last September that it was spending $23 billion on spectrum from EchoStarSATS. SpaceX’s filings put the total price of the EchoStar licenses, including an addition agreed in November 2025, at about $19.6 billion.

SpaceX’s wireless push at a glance

Partner on Infrastructure, Competitor for the Customer

DiPalma compared SpaceX with AST SpaceMobileASTS and AmazonAMZN. He said: “There is an opportunity for AST SpaceMobile, but AST is going to have to compete with Amazon in that both of those companies are positioning themselves to be the allies of these wireless carriers. So the wireless carriers, they want to fill their dead spots with satellite. And it appears that SpaceX is going to be more of a competitor than a partner.”

In an MVNO deal, SpaceX would join forces with a carrier on infrastructure while competing for the end customer. A wholesale deal, where a satellite operator fills a carrier’s dead zones under the carrier’s brand, creates a different relationship. AST SpaceMobile built its company around that second approach, mentioning a “partner-first mobile network operator strategy” in its second-quarter earnings release.

How Both Stocks Traded as the Debate Played Out

SpaceX closed at $162.57 on October 9, 2026, up 1.2% on the day and 2.3% for the week.

AST SpaceMobile closed at $50.97, down 10.5% on the day. The stock is down 12.8% for the week, 18.4% over the past month, 29.8% year to date and 41.3% over twelve months.

Timeline Investors Should Keep an Eye On

DiPalma said AST SpaceMobile is expected to launch trial service with two of the largest U.S. carriers later this year, and that Amazon is expected to enter the market around 2029 or 2030.