Investors who stayed away from the initial public offering of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) now face a very different decision. SpaceX priced its June 12 IPO at $135 per share, opened near $150 and briefly traded above $200 before falling to an early August low of $104.83.
That represented a peak-to-trough decline of roughly 48%. However, the stock has since rebounded sharply and was trading around $140 late Wednesday morning, slightly above its IPO price but still about 31% below its June high of $201.80.
In other words, SpaceX is no longer an obvious dip-buying opportunity based solely on its share price. The stock has recovered much of its recent collapse, while the company’s valuation remains exceptionally demanding.
SpaceX’s growth comes with enormous spending
SpaceX’s first quarterly report as a public company showed why investors remain interested. Second-quarter revenue rose 92% year over year to $7.81 billion, while its net loss narrowed to $541 million from just over $1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA climbed to $3.54 billion from $1.21 billion.
Starlink remains the company’s strongest established business. SpaceX’s connectivity division generated $4.29 billion in quarterly revenue and $1.66 billion in operating income, helped by a doubling of Starlink subscribers to 12 million.
The concern is how much SpaceX is spending to build its next generation of businesses. Capital expenditures reached $18.37 billion in the second quarter, including $15.83 billion devoted to artificial intelligence infrastructure. For the first six months of 2026, SpaceX reported $3.47 billion in operating cash flow against $28.48 billion in capital expenditures.
That spending could eventually support valuable businesses in AI computing, Starship and orbital data centers. However, those opportunities carry significant execution risk. Deutsche Bank estimates that a one-gigawatt space-based data center would currently cost approximately six times as much as a comparable terrestrial system. The bank believes that gap could narrow substantially by the end of the decade if SpaceX improves Starship reusability and satellite efficiency.
Whitney Tilson still believes SpaceX is overvalued
Veteran investor Whitney Tilson remains firmly in the bearish camp. Following SpaceX’s earnings report, Tilson again described it as the most overvalued large-cap stock he has encountered.
His argument is centered on valuation and cash consumption rather than the quality of Starlink or SpaceX’s launch business. SpaceX currently has a market value of approximately $1.86 trillion and generated $23.04 billion in revenue over the past 12 months. That places the stock at roughly 81 times trailing sales, an extraordinary multiple even for a rapidly growing technology company.
Tilson estimated that SpaceX could be worth around $500 billion if it reaches a $50 billion annual revenue run rate and receives a generous valuation of 10 times sales. That is his personal estimate, not a Wall Street consensus, but it illustrates how much future success is already reflected in the stock price.
Wall Street’s own forecasts reveal considerable uncertainty. Among 35 analysts tracked by S&P Global, SpaceX carries an average price target near $231, but individual targets range from $62 to $800.
SpaceX is not a broken company. Revenue is growing rapidly, Starlink is profitable and the company ended the quarter with approximately $100 billion in cash and marketable securities. The risk is that investors are being asked to pay today for years of potential growth in AI, Starship and orbital infrastructure.
After the stock’s rapid rebound, I would not chase it simply because it once traded 48% below its peak. SpaceX may ultimately grow into its valuation, but the current price leaves little room for delays, cost overruns or disappointing returns on its enormous capital investments.