Steve Liesman, senior economics reporter at CNBC, opened Tuesday morning’s segment with a line that reframes how investors should be sizing up this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. “It is not just one and done, according to CNBC. Respondents to the CNBC Fed survey see a hike at this month’s meeting. And in a sharp turnaround a majority now see at least one more hike this year,” he said, presenting the latest results of the CNBC Fed Survey of economists, strategists and money managers.
That framing matters because the survey landscape looks materially different than it did a few weeks ago, and the Federal Open Market Committee decision is due Wednesday.
Survey Snapshot: A Hawkish Turn In Four Weeks
According to the poll, CNBC reports 76% of respondents expect a rate hike at this week’s Fed meeting. Looking further out, Liesman said 86% look for a hike this year, up from 46% in last month’s survey. The number that supports his “not one and done” read is narrower: CNBC’s survey shows 55% expect more than one hike this year, a bare majority. Further out, CNBC found 31% see more than two hikes through CNBC’s July 2027 horizon.
The policy backdrop for those expectations: the Federal Funds target rate upper bound sits at 3.75%, where it has held since December 11, 2025. Respondents projecting additional hikes are calling for moves higher from that level.
Why Respondents Turned
The shift lines up with worsening inflation forecasts inside the survey itself. CNBC’s average 2026 CPI forecast rose to 3.5%, from 2.7% in January. For the following year, CNBC’s 2027 CPI forecast stands at 2.85%, up from 2.5% in January.
Respondents also increasingly describe price pressure as structural. Liesman, citing the CNBC Fed Survey, said “72%. About three quarters see an inflation as a broader problem beyond just energy, while 24% see it as mostly energy.” The BLS Consumer Price Index reached 334.980 in August 2026, compared with 324.054 in December 2025, providing the backdrop for those forecasts.
Long End Signals And An Open Question
Liesman flagged the long end of the Treasury curve as the piece he cannot yet answer. “What I’m looking for here is is the mark is the long end up because it thinks the Fed is going to hike, or is it concerned about inflation and needs a rate hike to sort of cap this rise? That’s what I do not know. I do see it though, as you do. I’m sure. Andrew linked to oil prices. That tells me that there’s an inflation component to this,” he said, according to CNBC.
The oil link is concrete. WTI crude settled at $97.26 per barrel on September 9, 2026, up up $13.50 from a month ago3.50 from a month ago, and the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread has narrowed to 0.32% as of September 14, 2026, from 0.74% on February 9, 2026, according to CNBC. Investors curious about how the Fed frames these mechanics can revisit the FOMC’s own calendar and statements.
Gilbert, speaking in the same CNBC segment, put a sharper edge on the setup. “Economic conditions in the U.S. are incompatible with the Fed’s policy rate. Something has to give, according to CNBC segment, speaker affiliation not stated in source. Either inflation needs to fall or the Fed has to hike, or the long end of the U.S. yield curve will continue to sell off,” he said.
What To Watch Wednesday
The rate decision lands Wednesday, with CNBC identifying Kevin Warsh as Fed chair heading into the meeting. The survey frames the reaction function: if the committee delivers a hike and signals more work to do, respondents are already positioned for it. If it holds, the gap between market pricing and survey expectations becomes the story. Either way, the “one and done” assumption that dominated last month’s survey is off the table for the majority of respondents this month.