Quantum computing stocks are still some of the market’s most polarizing bets: enormous long-term promise, small current revenue bases, and valuations that can run far ahead of the underlying businesses. On June 22, 2026, the White House signed two separate executive orders, one aimed at accelerating U.S. quantum innovation and another at speeding the federal shift toward post-quantum cryptography. That is meaningful policy support, but it is not a blank check for public quantum companies.
The upside numbers below come from average 12-month analyst price targets compared with August 17 closing prices. Those targets can move quickly and should never be treated as expected returns. For retirees, near-retirees, or anyone already drawing from savings, these stocks should be viewed as speculative holdings rather than replacements for dependable income or money needed for near-term expenses.
1. D-Wave Quantum Has the Most Implied Upside
D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ: QBTS) moves to the top once the upside math is corrected. Against its $20.87 August 17 close, the $35.25 average analyst target implies about 68.9% upside. The business is still small, but first-half bookings reached $35.5 million and remaining performance obligations hit $40.7 million. Q2 revenue was only $3.1 million, while adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $37.1 million. Management expects two annealing systems to ship later in 2026, making execution and revenue timing the key things to watch. AT&T’s early network test also cut one optimization workload from about an hour to under 15 seconds. For retirees, this belongs in the speculative bucket, not the income bucket.
2. Rigetti Has Cash, Government Interest, and Plenty Left to Prove
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) ranks second. Its $18.67 August 17 close versus a $28.81 average analyst target works out to roughly 54.3% implied upside. Q2 revenue rose to $5.1 million from $1.8 million a year earlier, and Rigetti ended June with $541.3 million in cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale investments and no debt. The U.S. Department of Commerce letter of intent for up to $100 million over three years could help fund R&D, but it is not a final award and contemplates an equity stake for the government. GAAP net loss was $52.6 million, so the balance sheet buys time, but investors still need major technical progress and much more commercial scale.
3. IonQ Has the Biggest Business, but the Valuation Still Demands a Lot
IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) has the lowest implied upside of the three, but it also has the largest revenue base. Its $46.84 August 17 close versus a $67.68 average target implies about 44.5% upside. Q2 revenue reached $80.1 million, up 287% year over year, and IonQ raised 2026 revenue guidance to $280 million to $290 million, excluding SkyWater. The July 31 SkyWater acquisition adds manufacturing scale, but the risk profile remains aggressive. IonQ reported a $1.87 billion GAAP net loss, heavily affected by $1.58 billion of fair-value measurement changes, while adjusted EBITDA loss was $120.3 million. The September 8 Investor Day is the next major checkpoint.
What Investors Should Watch From Here
The targets are attention-grabbing, but they are still analyst estimates, not expected returns. The next checkpoints are clearer: IonQ’s September 8 Investor Day, a definitive Commerce Department agreement for Rigetti, and D-Wave’s planned 2026 annealing-system deliveries. That is where investors will get better evidence on revenue, cash use, and whether the technology roadmaps are turning into commercial demand. For retirees and near-retirees, position size matters more than the headline upside. If a sharp drop would force you to sell shares to cover living expenses, the position is too large for money meant to protect retirement security and dependable cash flow.