The artificial intelligence investment story is moving from a race to build the best models to a race to turn those models into durable businesses. That shift matters even more as Anthropic and OpenAI move closer to possible public listings. Both companies have confidentially submitted draft S-1 registration statements, although neither filing by itself guarantees an IPO.
For investors, impressive technology is only part of the equation. Revenue growth, profit margins, spending needs, and the price investors are eventually asked to pay will matter just as much. Anthropic’s latest numbers are impressive, but they also raise a familiar investing question: how much future success is already baked into the valuation?
Anthropic Just Passed OpenAI on Revenue
The latest numbers show how quickly the AI race can change. The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI’s second-quarter revenue rose 18% from the first quarter to $6.7 billion, while Anthropic generated about $11.6 billion. That puts Anthropic roughly 73% ahead of OpenAI for the quarter, not double. Anthropic also reported a small operating profit on the measure shared with investors, while OpenAI’s operating loss widened to $12.3 billion from $9.3 billion. Those are striking numbers, but both companies are still private, so investors do not yet have the same recurring public financial disclosure they would get from an established public company.
Claude Code Is Powering the Growth
Anthropic’s momentum is being driven heavily by business customers and developers. The company said in February that Claude Code, which became generally available in May 2025, had passed a $2.5 billion revenue run rate and that enterprise use accounted for more than half of Claude Code revenue. Anthropic’s companywide run-rate revenue then crossed $47 billion in May, and Reuters reported that it topped $65 billion by the end of July. A run rate is not the same thing as full-year revenue. It annualizes the company’s current sales pace, so investors should view it as a snapshot of momentum rather than money already earned over 12 months.
OpenAI is chasing the same business market. In April, the company said enterprise customers represented more than 40% of revenue and that the segment was on track to reach parity with consumer revenue by the end of 2026. That is an important shift because the AI race is increasingly about landing companies that can incorporate these tools into everyday workflows and keep spending as usage grows.
$2 Trillion Is Not an Official IPO Valuation
Anthropic confidentially submitted its draft S-1 to the SEC on June 1, 2026, but the company specifically said the number of shares and price had not been set. The widely discussed $2 trillion figure comes from investor expectations and valuation models, not an announced IPO target from Anthropic. That distinction matters. Anthropic’s most recent funding round in May valued the company at $965 billion, meaning a $2 trillion IPO valuation would represent another enormous jump in a matter of months.
Reuters reported that Anthropic is projecting roughly $190 billion to $200 billion in revenue for 2028. A $2 trillion valuation would therefore equal about 10 times that projected revenue, even though those sales are still more than two years away. That could eventually look reasonable if Anthropic keeps growing at an extraordinary pace while improving margins. It could look very expensive if competition drives AI prices lower, growth slows, or the cost of computing infrastructure remains stubbornly high.
What Investors Should Watch Before Buying
Anthropic can be an exceptional business and its eventual stock can still be overpriced. Those two things can be true at the same time. Before deciding whether an IPO is worth buying, investors should be able to examine the public prospectus, including detailed financial results, cash needs, stock-based compensation, customer concentration, potential dilution, and the company’s own discussion of risks. Right now, the confidential filing means much of that information is still unavailable to ordinary investors.
That matters especially for retirees and near-retirees who may already be drawing income from their portfolios and have less room to recover from a large speculative loss. The SEC warns that an IPO’s offering price is a negotiated estimate of value and may have little relationship to where the shares trade afterward. Anthropic’s growth deserves attention, but investors do not have to confuse an exciting company with an attractive price. Waiting for the prospectus, the final valuation, and actual public-company results could make the decision much easier.