Anthropic’s path to the public markets got a live stress test on the latest All-In podcast. In the episode released September 26, Jason Calacanis said “Shane peaked at 96% earlier this month that Anthropic will go public this year, but now it’s fallen to 76%”. That current level checks out against Polymarket. A second headline claim, about open-source models taking over token usage, depends on a single chart. Investors should consider the two very differently.
Calacanis’s 76% Matches the Live Market
As of September 26, 2026, Polymarket’s contract on Anthropic listing by December 31, 2026 trades at 0.765, an implied probability of 76.5%. The contract is down 0.15 over the past month and down 0.03 over the past week.
Total volume on the market is $3,867,733.
Calacanis also cited a Wall Street Journal report that the listing, once expected in October, “will happen in November or maybe delayed even more”. Separately, Reuters reported that Anthropic is considering releasing a new AI model ahead of its IPO.
What the Panel Skipped: Traders Have Written Off the Next Few Weeks
The contract on an Anthropic IPO by September 30 trades at 0.0005. The October 31 contract trades at 0.0235, down 0.8015 over the past month. The November 30 contract is priced at 0.585. Contracts on listings by June 30, July 31 and September 15 have closed.
Traders have written off the next several weeks almost entirely while giving roughly three in four odds by year end.
Friedberg’s 80% Flip Rests on One Chart
David Friedberg said that over the last 12 weeks, token usage switched from 80% closed models and 20% open source to 80% open source and 20% closed, citing a viral chart from Vercel. Readers should treat this as a single-platform data point.
Friedberg listed an “wild flurry” of model releases in the last 10 days, including open-weight models from Alibaba (NYSE:BABA | BABA Price Prediction), Xiaomi and Prism ML that match or exceed closed models and can run free on a home computer. Calacanis added that Anthropic and OpenAI both cut token prices by 50% this week.
Chamath’s Case for a Lower IPO Price
Chamath Palihapitiya said the IPO will likely clear at a “much lower price than anybody thinks”. If more than 60 to 70% of Anthropic’s token revenue comes from tasks open-source models can handle, IPO investors must discount that revenue heavily.
Revenue a customer could replace with a free alternative can walk out the door, so buyers should value it below revenue tied to work only a premium model can do.
Sacks Levels a Hypocrisy Charge
David Sacks said Anthropic’s leadership has publicly claimed a greater than 10% chance of causing human extinction while opening new frontier models and a wet lab in San Francisco. He called this hypocritical. That is Sacks’s characterization and opinion.
What Investors Can Check, and What They Can’t
Anthropic is private, so none of this is testable against a share price. What can be observed is that a liquid prediction market has moved against a near-term listing. The open-source replacement thesis rests on evidence a reader cannot check independently.
The gap matters. Anyone can pull up the December 31 and November 30 contracts and see them reprice as filing news arrives. The 80% figure lives in a screenshot from one company’s platform, and until broader usage data surfaces, it remains a panelist’s claim.