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The 10-Year Treasury Is at Its Highest in a Year. Mortgage Rates Just Followed It to a 52-Week High.

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The 10-Year Treasury Is at Its Highest in a Year. Mortgage Rates Just Followed It to a 52-Week High.

Updated: by AJ Tiarsmith

Quick Read

  • Three major mortgage trackers all show different rates for the same loan type, and the gap between them is more than just noise.
  • A weaker-than-expected jobs report should have pushed mortgage rates down. It didn't, and the reason bond traders ignored it is counterintuitive.
  • Stocks climbed while mortgage costs hit a 52-week high on the same day, and what that split signal means for borrowers is not what most assume.
  • Just released. Our analysts combed the entire stock market and named the ten best stocks to buy right now. The report is free. Enter your email and see if any of your stocks made the cut.

Where we heard itMortgage News Daily, daily rate index and Matthew Graham’s rate columns of Oct. 2 and Oct. 5, 2026, plus Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey and the Treasury’s daily yield data.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage pricing follows, closed at 5.31% on October 5, 2026, a new one-year high above the 5.29% set September 30, 2026. It rose 0.53 percentage points over the prior month, from 4.78% on September 4. The low was 3.97% on February 27, 2026.

Mortgage rates rose along with it. Stocks moved higher. On October 5, 2026, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustSPY closed at $774.83, up 0.67% on the session.

Quote: “It’s a bit counterintuitive on a day where the hotly anticipated jobs report came in much weaker than expected.” Matthew Graham, Mortgage News Daily, Oct. 2, 2026
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Three Mortgage Gauges Report Three Different Rates

Mortgage News Daily’s daily index put the 30-year fixed at 7.61% on October 5, 2026, a new yearly high just above the 7.60% set September 30. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey read 7.28% as of October 1, 2026, a yearly high. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly reading was 7.30% as of September 30, 2026, also a yearly high, according to Mortgage News Daily.

These readings use different methods and borrower profiles. Points are upfront fees that lower rates. The MBA reports the points borrowers paid alongside its rate, while Freddie Mac stopped publishing points in late 2022, so identical rates can describe different loans.

Line chart: Mortgage rates climbed right along with the 10-year. From early October 2025 to early October 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.18% to 5.31% (Oct. 5, 2026 close), and Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate rose from 6.34% to 7.28% (Oct. 1, 2026).
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Both weekly surveys are at yearly highs. Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year jumbo rate of 7.70% is also a yearly high. Other October 5 readings from Mortgage News Daily were:

  • 15-year fixed: 7.23%, according to Mortgage News Daily
  • 30-year FHA: 7.24%, according to Mortgage News Daily
  • 30-year VA: 7.25%, according to Mortgage News Daily
  • 7/6 SOFR ARM: 6.87%, according to Mortgage News Daily. This adjustable loan is fixed for seven years, then resets every six months.

What It Means for S&P 500 ETF Holders

SPY tracks the S&P 500. On October 5, equities and bonds moved opposite: bonds lost ground, according to Mortgage News Daily, and its rate index rose to a new high. Stock prices rose even as borrowing costs climbed.

Where rates stood before this story ran

10-year Treasury5.31%Oct. 5 close, the highest in a year
MND 30-year index7.61%Oct. 5, a new yearly high
Freddie Mac 30-year7.28%Week of Oct. 1, up 0.94 point in a year
MBA 30-year7.30%Reported Sept. 30, a yearly high

Why a Weak Jobs Report Failed to Pull Rates Down

Weak labor data usually pushes rates lower, yet Mortgage News Daily’s index rose 0.04% on Friday, October 2, despite a weaker-than-expected jobs report. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, but unrounded figures were closer: 4.175% versus 4.141%, according to Mortgage News Daily. More people entered the labor force. Bonds gave back early gains as oil prices rallied. The headline looked weak, details looked solid, and bond traders went with the details.

For context, Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed peaked at 7.79% on October 26, 2023 and bottomed at 2.65% on January 7, 2021. The 10-year average is about 4.98%. The current reading is up 0.57 points from four weeks earlier and 0.94 points from a year earlier.

Bar chart: Mortgage rates sit far above their 10-year norm. Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed rate: record low 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021; 10-year average 4.98%; 7.28% on Oct. 1, 2026, the highest in a year; 2023 peak 7.79% on Oct. 26, 2023.
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Does the Rising Stock Market Mean Rates Don’t Matter?

For borrowers, rates matter more than stock gains. Every mortgage measure is at or near its yearly peak, and weak labor data failed to pull them down. The 10-year already closed above its September 30 high of 5.29% on October 5. Watch whether it stays there and whether Freddie Mac’s next survey, due October 8, tops 7.28%.

The bottom line

The 10-year Treasury yield and the main mortgage rate gauges all reached one-year highs in early October 2026, and a weaker-than-expected jobs report did little to slow them. Rising stocks don’t make a mortgage cheaper, and the risk for borrowers is that mortgage rates keep following the 10-year higher.

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