Bitcoin Peaked Almost Exactly One Year Ago. Tom Lee Says Today Is the Cycle Bottom and It Closes Above $100,000.

The leading cryptocurrency, BitcoinBTC, set its record high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025. It closed October 5, 2026 at $85,787, which leaves it 32.0% below that peak. Almost exactly twelve months after the top, Tom Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat, is calling the bottom of the four-year cycle.

Lee made his comments in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box. The quotes below were checked against CNBC’s video of that interview.

Lee Says the Cycle Date Investors Waited For Is Today

Lee said the four-year cycle date many investors said they were waiting for before buying crypto is “today.” The four-year cycle is the pattern crypto investors associate with Bitcoin’s halving schedule and the boom-and-bust rhythm around it.

Lee’s Year-End Targets Next to Today’s Prices

Lee expects EthereumETH to recover its prior high of 5,000 and Bitcoin to close the year above 100,000. Bitcoin’s October 5 close of $85,787 sits about $14,000 below that mark. Ether closed at $2,711.03, 45.2% below its record of $4,946.05 from August 24, 2025. Record highs are from CoinGecko.

These are year-end targets, and fewer than three months remain on the calendar.

How Lee’s Reference Points Line Up With the Records

Lee described Ethereum’s prior high as “just under 5,000,” which matches the $4,946.05 record. He described Bitcoin’s prior high as “120.” The actual record stands higher, at $126,080.

Lee’s Three Arguments for a Rebound

Crypto as a leading signal. Lee said crypto’s resilience in the “third quarter” is a leading indicator for how stocks perform in the fourth quarter, which he expects to be explosive.

Tokenization. Lee pointed to a tokenization movement supported by BlackRockBLK, Fidelity and “all the major firms” as a tailwind for crypto.

Agentic AI. Lee’s most unusual point was that crypto is one of the important ways to keep humans “in the loop” as superintelligence rises. He did not lay out the mechanism in the interview.

A Call Lee Has Been Building Toward for Months

Lee has held this view for a long time. In December 2025, finance.yahoo.com carried a report that Lee said Bitcoin adoption could rise “200 times” and predicted the end of the four-year cycle. On September 30, 2026, tekedia.com reported that Lee called this the “biggest” cycle ever and said crypto had entered a historic bull market. Monday’s statement ties a specific date to an argument he has made for nearly a year.

Prices have moved against that argument. Over the past year, Bitcoin has fallen 30.5% and Ethereum has dropped 40.0%. The most recent month looks better: Bitcoin is up 7.5% over the past 30 days and Ethereum is up 9.3%.

Where the two coins stood on Oct. 5

BitMine Affiliation Readers Should Weigh

Several publications have linked Lee to BitMine, an Ethereum-focused treasury company. CoinDesk has referred to him as “Bitmine’s” Tom Lee in coverage of crypto’s price struggles, and The Block has used the same label, “BitMine’s” Tom Lee, in its reporting. BitMine’s own October 5, 2026 release, filed with the SEC, names Lee as its chairman and lists him as a personal investor. The company said it held 6.02 million ether tokens. When an Ethereum price target comes from the chairman of an Ethereum treasury firm, readers should factor that link into how much weight they give the call.

What Investors Can Actually Verify by Year-End

A cycle bottom can only be confirmed in hindsight, after prices have held a low and turned higher. Today is a date Lee named in advance.

His targets are specific and his deadline is fixed: Bitcoin closing above 100,000 and Ethereum recovering 5,000 by year-end. Within three months, the market will show whether he was right.