On the September 12 episode of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, mining billionaire Robert Friedland delivered a stark claim: humanity has mined roughly 700 million metric tons of copper since Mohenjo-daro, and to sustain 3% global GDP growth with 8 billion people, “we need to mine that same amount of copper that we mined in the last 10,000 years, in the next 18 years.” His conclusion: “those of us that are in the industry don’t see that as being possible.”
The timing was pointed. One day earlier, Elon Musk had posted on X that “solar energy over time will round up to 100% of energy harnessed (obviously).” Every wire in that all-electric future, every transformer coil, every data center busbar is copper. Friedland was calling the bluff.
What the World’s Largest Copper Producer Is Telling You
You do not have to take Friedland at his word. Look at BHP (NYSE:BHP | BHP Price Prediction), the world’s largest copper producer and co-operator of Chile’s Escondida mine. In its fiscal 2026 results reported September 15, 2026, copper delivered more than half of underlying EBITDA for the year, with attributable profit rising to $9.80 billion from $9.00 billion. In the first half, the average realized copper price jumped 32% year over year to $5.28 per pound, pushing underlying EBITDA margins to 58.4%.
Escondida Is Getting Harder
Friedland’s supply-side evidence is the ore itself. He argues that at Escondida, grades have collapsed from roughly 2% copper to 0.4%, forcing exponentially more energy and water per pound produced. BHP’s response is capital, and lots of it: capital and exploration spending guidance of approximately $11 billion per year in fiscal 2026 and 2027, an Escondida New Concentrator project targeting an additional 220 to 260 thousand tonnes per year with first production not expected until calendar 2031 to 2032, and a $2.1 billion joint venture with Lundin Mining on the Vicuña deposits in Argentina, which still rely on more than 50% Inferred Mineral Resources.
The equity market is pricing in scarcity. BHP is up 68.21% over the past year and 48.15% year to date, with a market cap near $217.96 billion. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) is up 59.03% over one year and 40.68% year to date. Both have outrun NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), which is up 18.14% year to date.
Signal to Watch
New CEO Brandon Craig, who took over July 1, 2026, has signaled copper and potash as the growth agenda. The key signal is the Escondida New Concentrator permitting decision, with a DIA permit application on track for the second half of fiscal 2026 and a potential final investment decision by calendar 2027 to 2028. If that slips, Friedland’s math gets worse, and Musk’s solar future gets more expensive.
Data Sources
- Odd Lots: Robert Friedland on the World’s Monumental Shortage of Copper: source of the 10,000-years-in-18-years claim, the 700 million ton historical figure, and the Escondida grade collapse from 2% to 0.4%.
- Elon Musk X post, September 11, 2026: the solar-rounds-up-to-100% claim Friedland was implicitly rebutting.
- BHP fiscal 2026 and H1 fiscal 2026 disclosures: copper share of EBITDA, realized price, capex guidance, Escondida and Vicuña project timelines, and the 10 Mt uncommitted supply gap by 2035.
- Price performance data for BHP, FCX, and NVDA through September 18, 2026.