DZ Bank initiated coverage of SpaceX on August 20, 2026, with a Sell rating and a $100 fair-value estimate. SpaceX closed that day at about $134, putting the bank’s valuation roughly 25% below the market price. For long-term investors, that makes the call worth a closer look. SpaceX is growing quickly across Starlink and artificial intelligence, but it is also spending at a pace few public companies can match. The real question is whether future growth can justify today’s valuation before those enormous capital requirements begin to ease.
| Ticker | Company | Firm | Action | Old Rating | New Rating | Old Target | New Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | SpaceX | DZ Bank | Initiation | N/A | Sell | N/A | $100 |
Why DZ Bank Is Worried About the Valuation
DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner described SpaceX as one of the more exciting capital-market stories of the coming years, but his concern is what investors are being asked to pay for that potential. The company spent $18.37 billion on capital expenditures in the second quarter alone, including $15.83 billion in its AI segment. Management indicated on its earnings call that capital spending could remain near that level in each of the next two quarters. That is a massive investment burden even for a company with SpaceX’s resources. The company also reported a $541 million quarterly net loss. The $60 billion Cursor acquisition adds another major bet on AI, although that all-stock transaction has now closed. DZ Bank’s argument is not that SpaceX lacks promising businesses. It is that the current valuation leaves relatively little room for delays, weaker returns on all that spending, or growth that falls short of the expectations already built into the shares.
SpaceX Is Growing Fast, but It Is Spending Even Faster
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) reported $7.81 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 92% from a year earlier, in its first quarterly report as a public company. Connectivity remained the largest segment at $4.29 billion in revenue, while Starlink reached 12 million subscribers, double the year-earlier total. AI revenue jumped 247% to $2.56 billion. The company also produced $3.54 billion in adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure of operating performance, despite posting the $541 million net loss. Liquidity is substantial: SpaceX ended June with $93.52 billion in cash and another $6.49 billion in marketable securities, or roughly $100 billion combined, along with a $47.5 billion backlog. Those numbers give management considerable room to invest. They do not remove the risk that shareholders are paying today for profits and cash flows that may take years to develop.
More SpaceX Shares Are Becoming Available to Trade
SpaceX’s stock has already shown how quickly sentiment can change. The company priced its IPO at $135 and began trading on June 12, when shares closed at $160.95. By August 20, the stock had fallen back to roughly $134, about 17% below that first-day close and essentially back at the IPO price. The supply of tradeable shares is also expanding. About 911.5 million previously restricted shares became eligible for sale after second-quarter earnings in early August, followed by another tranche of roughly 319 million shares on August 20. An unlock does not mean every employee or early investor will sell. It simply means they are allowed to. Still, a larger float can change the supply-demand balance that helped support a relatively scarce stock immediately after the IPO. For investors, that creates another source of potential volatility on top of the company’s already aggressive valuation and investment plans.
What the Sell Rating Means for Long-Term Investors
DZ Bank’s $100 estimate is one analyst’s valuation, not a prediction that SpaceX must fall to that price. The bullish case is still easy to understand. Management has said it believes the business can reach at least a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2026, while Elon Musk has separately said SpaceX could reach roughly $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. Those are extraordinarily ambitious targets, not guaranteed outcomes. For retirees and other investors who cannot comfortably absorb a large drawdown, the more useful question is how much portfolio risk they want tied to a recently public company whose future depends on heavy spending and exceptional growth. SpaceX has significant liquidity, rapidly growing businesses and valuable assets, but it also has enormous capital needs and a stock that has already experienced large swings. DZ Bank’s Sell call is a reminder that a great business story and an attractive stock price are not necessarily the same thing.
