Anthropic remains privately held, and its planned offering is already being framed as the test case for the entire artificial intelligence trade. Lo Toney, founding managing partner of Plexo Capital, made that case on CNBC’s Squawk Box, and CNBC disclosed during the segment that Plexo Capital is an investor in Anthropic. Toney is publicly arguing for an offering his firm stands to benefit from. That is ordinary for a venture investor discussing a portfolio company, and readers should weigh everything below with that disclosure in mind.
Toney’s Case for Anthropic as the AI Trade’s Proxy
Toney said “Their IPO is adding another dimension to how we think about the AI trade itself, as well as the valuations.” Toney added, “This is going to ultimately be quite a significant proxy. So all eyes are going to be on that IPO.”
His best point concerns direct access to a frontier lab. Toney said “The ability for public market investors to have a way to own a pure play frontier lab, that’s very compelling.” Today, individual investors reach AI mostly through diversified mega-cap technology companies, where models sit alongside cloud, advertising, devices and software. A listed frontier lab would let investors own the model developer itself. That is a genuine structural change in what is available to buy.
Toney also argued, “It’s important for Anthropic to go to the public markets because that’s going to have a huge impact on the visibility of other companies that are in the pipeline.” The segment noted that an Anthropic listing would compete for capital with the largest technology stocks, and that other offerings have recently been postponed. A best debut could reopen the IPO window, while a deal this large could also pull money from the megacaps that dominate index funds.
What the Leaked Prospectus Reportedly Shows
Every figure here comes from reporting on a leaked draft. Anthropic has not publicly filed a registration statement, and none of these numbers are audited or confirmed. Investors can track whether one appears on the SEC’s EDGAR database. Fortune reported that Anthropic’s leaked IPO prospectus details heavy losses, rapid growth and a fear that AI could end humanity. Reuters reported the document shows a sweeping AI vision alongside surging costs.
- Loss: Technology Org reported a $42B loss.
- Spending: Quartz reported a $518B spending plan.
- Valuation: The Indian Express reported a $2 trillion valuation target.
For growth context, CNBC’s Kate Rooney reported in August, citing two sources, that Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate hit $65 billion as of the end of July. Anthropic declined to comment on those numbers.
An 80-Page Warning Investors Cannot Ignore
shattered.io reported the leaked document spends 80 pages to AI risk, and CNN reported that Anthropic says its models pose an “existential risk to humanity”. A company telling prospective shareholders its own product could threaten humanity is an unusual risk-factor disclosure. It sits awkwardly beside the pitch that this is a compelling pure-play to own. Investors will need to weigh both disclosures together. For readers thinking about how to participate in the AI expansion without staking everything on one frontier lab, we featured seven suppliers supplying the data-center expansion in a free report.
OpenAI’s Private Path Raises the Timing Question
CNBC’s segment cited $1.4 trillion as a valuation at which OpenAI may stay private, a figure not independently verified here. Toney’s framing raises a fair question for Anthropic: reach public markets quickly at whatever price works, or wait for better terms. Both companies remain privately held.
Is Anthropic the Proxy Toney Claims?
Yes. A listed frontier lab would give public investors the first direct price signal on what a model developer is worth, and that signal would shape how markets value every company spending heavily on AI. Toney is right about the significance, even as his firm benefits from the attention. Three things deserve close attention:
- Whether a registration statement is actually filed publicly.
- Whether the reported loss, spending and valuation figures survive contact with audited disclosure.
- How institutional buyers receive the existential-risk language once it appears in an official document.