Long-run calls, checked
The famous calls, the dates attached, and what happened next.
Some voices make news with big calls: a deadline for driverless cars, a bet against the market, a price target years out. We log those calls with the exact words where a record exists, the date and the source, and then track what happened. Every entry links to a dated source. We leave out calls we cannot document.
- 53documented calls
- 8people
- 17came true
- 12missed the date
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla and SpaceX
His product and autonomy timelines move Tesla’s stock and are some of the most quoted forecasts in markets.
Dated promises: when each was made, the deadline, and what happened
- Promise window
- Past the deadline
- Delivered
- Today
TSLA since the first call, monthly, adjusted for splits
1Oct. 19, 2016Self-driving demoMusk said Tesla hoped to demonstrate a fully autonomous, no-hands drive from Los Angeles to New York by the end of 2017.Missed the date
WhereTesla press conference call announcing Hardware 2 self-driving hardware
The callA fully autonomous LA to New York demonstration drive by the end of 2017
What happenedTesla did not carry out the demonstration drive in 2017 or in any later year. As of 2026, Tesla’s consumer software is still sold as FSD (Supervised), which requires an attentive driver.
Price sinceTSLA closed at $13.57 (Oct. 19, 2016) and $407.46 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 2,903%.
NoteCNBC paraphrases the promise; The Verge (same day) reported it the same way. Private owners have posted long FSD (Supervised) trips since, but no Tesla-run autonomous coast-to-coast demonstration has been documented. TSLA prices are split-adjusted (Yahoo): 5-for-1 on Aug 31, 2020 and 3-for-1 on Aug 25, 2022, so one pre-2020 share equals 15 of today’s shares.
Source: CNBC, Oct 19, 2016 · Outcome: Wikipedia, Tesla Autopilot (timeline of predictions, read Oct 27, 2026)
2Nov. 16, 2017Tesla SemiAt the Semi unveiling, Musk said deliveries of the electric Tesla Semi would begin in 2019.Missed the date
WhereTesla Semi and Roadster unveiling event, Hawthorne, California
The callSemi deliveries in 2019
What happenedLimited production began in October 2022 and the first Semis were delivered to PepsiCo on Dec 1, 2022. Tesla announced high-volume Semi production on Apr 29, 2026.
Price sinceTSLA closed at $20.83 (Nov. 16, 2017) and $407.46 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 1,856%.
NoteContemporaneous 2017 coverage (Washington Post, Car and Driver) also reported a 2019 production start. Tesla moved the date to 2021 in April 2020 and again later. TSLA prices are split-adjusted (Yahoo): 5-for-1 on Aug 31, 2020 and 3-for-1 on Aug 25, 2022, so one pre-2020 share equals 15 of today’s shares.
Source: Engadget, Dec 1, 2022 (recounts the 2017 promise) · Outcome: Drive Tesla Canada, Apr 29, 2026; Engadget, Dec 1, 2022
3Nov. 16, 2017RoadsterTesla unveiled a new Roadster and said it would be available in 2020, starting at $200,000.Missed the date
WhereTesla Semi and Roadster unveiling event, Hawthorne, California
The callNew Roadster available in 2020
What happenedThe Roadster was not produced in 2020. Musk later moved production to 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2027/28. Tesla showed a redesigned Roadster on Oct 15, 2026, and Musk said production would begin in 2028.
Price sinceTSLA closed at $20.83 (Nov. 16, 2017) and $407.46 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 1,856%.
NoteThe 2017 concept promised 1.9-second 0-60 mph and about 620 miles of range; the 2026 version claims about 310 to 320 miles of range (InsideEVs, Oct 16, 2026). TSLA prices are split-adjusted (Yahoo): 5-for-1 on Aug 31, 2020 and 3-for-1 on Aug 25, 2022, so one pre-2020 share equals 15 of today’s shares.
Source: TechCrunch, Nov 16, 2017 · Outcome: TechCrunch, Oct 15, 2026
4April 22, 2019RobotaxisAt Autonomy Day, Musk predicted Tesla would have over a million robotaxis (owner cars running full self-driving with no driver oversight) on the road within about a year.Missed the date
“We will have more than one million robotaxis on the road”
WhereTesla Autonomy Day investor event, Palo Alto
The callMore than one million robotaxis on the road in 2020
What happenedNo Tesla robotaxis operated in 2020. Tesla started a small invite-only robotaxi service in Austin on June 22, 2025, with an employee in the passenger seat, and began some rides with no one in the car on Jan 22, 2026. In September 2026 Texas had authorized 45 Tesla Cybercabs for driverless operation alongside Tesla’s Model Y robotaxis.
Price sinceTSLA closed at $17.52 (April 22, 2019) and $407.46 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 2,226%.
NoteSame event: Musk also said ’A year from now, we’ll have over a million cars with full self-driving, software… everything’ (The Verge). TSLA prices are split-adjusted (Yahoo): 5-for-1 on Aug 31, 2020 and 3-for-1 on Aug 25, 2022, so one pre-2020 share equals 15 of today’s shares.
Source: The Verge, Apr 22, 2019 · Outcome: The Motley Fool, Sep 4, 2026; Not a Tesla App, Jan 23, 2026 (driverless rides)
5June 13, 2024Optimus robotMusk said Optimus would enter limited production in 2025 and that by 2025 Tesla would have over 1,000, or a few thousand, robots working in its factories.Missed the date
“over 1,000, or a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla”
WhereTesla 2024 annual shareholder meeting
The callOver 1,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla during 2025
What happenedOn the Jan 28, 2026 earnings call Musk said Optimus was ’still in the R&D phase’ and ’not in usage in our factories in a material way,’ and that he did not expect significant production volume until about the end of 2026. Tesla is converting its Fremont Model S/X line into an Optimus line.
Price sinceTSLA closed at $182.47 (June 13, 2024) and $407.46 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 123%.
NoteMusk restated the plan on X on Jul 22, 2024: ’Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026’ (post 1815329637188202550, retrieved via Fuse/X API). The 2026 half of that plan has not reached its deadline. TSLA prices are split-adjusted (Yahoo): 5-for-1 on Aug 31, 2020 and 3-for-1 on Aug 25, 2022, so one pre-2020 share equals 15 of today’s shares.
Source: CNBC, Jun 13, 2024 · Outcome: Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), Jan 28, 2026
6Sept. 22, 2024Starships to MarsMusk said SpaceX would launch its first uncrewed Starships to Mars in about two years, at the next Earth-Mars transfer window in 2026, with around five ships.Reversed
WherePost on X, reported by Reuters
The callUncrewed Starship launches to Mars in the late-2026 transfer window
What happenedOn Feb 8, 2026 Musk posted that SpaceX had ’already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon,’ saying Mars would take 20+ years. As of Oct 27, 2026 no Starship has been launched toward Mars.
NoteThe 2026 window has not fully closed, but Musk changed SpaceX’s stated priority to the Moon in February 2026. Reuters page could not be opened directly; the call’s wording comes from Reuters’ headline and Wikipedia’s citation of it. SpaceX trades publicly as SPCX in 2026 (per our Fuse people data), so no ticker path is shown here.
Source: Reuters, Sep 22, 2024 · Outcome: Universe Today, Feb 11, 2026
7Oct. 23, 2024Cybercab volume productionMusk said the Cybercab, Tesla’s purpose-built robotaxi with no steering wheel, would reach volume production in 2026.Not yet due
WhereTesla Q3 2024 earnings call
The callCybercab volume production in 2026
What happenedThe first Cybercab came off the line in February 2026 and paid Cybercab rides began in Austin in early September 2026. Tesla’s Q2 2026 update (Jul 22, 2026) dropped the Cybercab from its list of products expected to reach volume production in 2026; Texas had authorized 45 Cybercabs for driverless operation.
Price sinceTSLA closed at $213.65 (Oct. 23, 2024) and $407.46 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 91%.
NoteDeadline is the end of 2026, so the verdict stays ’not yet’, but Tesla itself removed the 2026 volume-production language in July 2026. TSLA prices are split-adjusted (Yahoo): 5-for-1 on Aug 31, 2020 and 3-for-1 on Aug 25, 2022, so one pre-2020 share equals 15 of today’s shares.
Source: Tesla Q3 2024 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), Oct 23, 2024 · Outcome: The Motley Fool, Sep 4, 2026
8Jan. 29, 2025Driverless service in AustinMusk said Tesla would launch unsupervised, no-one-in-the-car full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June 2025.Mixed
“We feel confident in being able to do an initial launch of unsupervised, no one in the car, full self-driving in Austin in June.”
WhereTesla Q4 2024 earnings call
The callPaid unsupervised robotaxi rides with no one in the car, Austin, June 2025
What happenedTesla launched a paid, invite-only robotaxi service in Austin on June 22, 2025, with no one in the driver’s seat but a Tesla employee in the front passenger seat. Rides with no Tesla employee in the car began on Jan 22, 2026.
Price sinceTSLA closed at $389.10 (Jan. 29, 2025) and $407.46 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 5%.
NoteThe June launch date was met; the ’no one in the car’ part arrived about seven months later. TSLA prices are split-adjusted (Yahoo): 5-for-1 on Aug 31, 2020 and 3-for-1 on Aug 25, 2022, so one pre-2020 share equals 15 of today’s shares.
Source: Tesla Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), Jan 29, 2025 · Outcome: Not a Tesla App, Jan 23, 2026; USA Today, Jun 22, 2025 (launch with safety monitor)
9Jan. 29, 2025Unsupervised FSD in several citiesMusk said Tesla would have unsupervised, fully autonomous Teslas operating in Austin and several other US cities by the end of 2025.Missed the date
“I’m very confident we’ll have released unsupervised full self-driving, fully autonomous Teslas in Austin and several other cities in America by the end of this year”
WhereTesla Q4 2024 earnings call
The callUnsupervised autonomous Teslas in Austin and several other US cities
What happenedBy the end of 2025 Tesla ran robotaxi service in Austin with an employee aboard and in the San Francisco Bay Area with an employee in the driver’s seat. Rides with no one in the car started in Austin on Jan 22, 2026; by May 2026 Tesla had 22 driverless cars in Austin, 6 in Houston and 2 in Dallas.
Price sinceTSLA closed at $389.10 (Jan. 29, 2025) and $407.46 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 5%.
NoteMedium confidence because the May 2026 vehicle counts come from Wikipedia’s summary of The Verge, which we could not open directly. Unsupervised FSD for customer-owned cars was not released in 2025 either. TSLA prices are split-adjusted (Yahoo): 5-for-1 on Aug 31, 2020 and 3-for-1 on Aug 25, 2022, so one pre-2020 share equals 15 of today’s shares.
Source: Tesla Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), Jan 29, 2025 · Outcome: The Verge, May 4, 2026 (driverless counts, as cited by Wikipedia); Not a Tesla App, Jan 23, 2026
Michael Burry
Investor; founder of Scion Asset Management (deregistered Nov 2025); writes the Cassandra Unchained newsletter
Famous for the 2005 to 2007 housing short; his disclosed bearish bets get wide coverage.
Dated promises: when each was made, the deadline, and what happened
- Promise window
- Past the deadline
- Delivered
- Today
S&P 500 since the first call, monthly, adjusted for splits
TSLA since the first call, monthly, adjusted for splits
1May 19, 2005US housing / subprime shortBurry began betting against subprime mortgage bonds, buying $60 million of credit-default swaps from Deutsche Bank on six bonds, and built the position to at least $1 billion by late 2005.Came true
WhereScion Capital trades and investor letters
The callSubprime mortgage bonds would default as teaser rates reset, roughly two years after issue
What happenedThe subprime market began collapsing in 2007. Scion made about $725 million for its investors and $100 million for Burry; a Scion investor from Nov 1, 2000 to Jun 30, 2008 gained 489.34% after fees.
Price since^GSPC closed at $1,191.08 (May 19, 2005) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 548%.
NoteIn a May 2003 letter to a friend Burry wrote that he was ’extremely bearish’ and that ’the consequences could very easily be a 50% drop in residential real estate in the U.S.’ (quoted in the same Vanity Fair excerpt). Investors pushed back hard while Scion paid swap premiums in 2006. The ticker shown is only for market context.
Source: Michael Lewis, ’Betting on the Blind Side’, Vanity Fair, Apr 2010 · Outcome: Vanity Fair, Apr 2010; The New York Times, Mar 9, 2007 (’Winners amid gloom of defaults’)
2May 17, 2021Tesla puts (2021)Scion’s 13F for Q1 2021 disclosed put options on 800,100 Tesla shares, with a reported value of $534.4 million.Reversed
WhereScion Asset Management 13F-HR for quarter ended Mar 31, 2021 (filed May 17, 2021)
The callBearish bet on TSLA (no strike or expiry disclosed)
What happenedThe Q2 2021 13F showed puts on 1,075,500 Tesla shares ($731.0 million reported value). The Q3 2021 13F, filed Nov 15, 2021, no longer listed Tesla puts. TSLA rose from $222.64 (split-adjusted) at Mar 31, 2021 to $258.49 at Sep 30, 2021 and hit a record close of $409.97 on Nov 4, 2021.
Price sinceTSLA closed at $222.64 (March 31, 2021) and $407.46 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 83%.
Note13F values for options are the notional value of the underlying shares at quarter-end, not the premium Scion paid, and 13Fs do not show strikes, expiries or profit and loss. Scion’s actual gain or loss on these puts is unknown. TSLA prices are split-adjusted (Yahoo): 5-for-1 on Aug 31, 2020 and 3-for-1 on Aug 25, 2022, so one pre-2020 share equals 15 of today’s shares.
Source: SEC EDGAR, Scion 13F-HR, filed May 17, 2021 · Outcome: SEC EDGAR, Scion 13F-HR for Q3 2021, filed Nov 15, 2021
3Jan. 31, 2023’Sell’ postBurry posted a one-word message, ’sell,’ on Twitter, widely read as a warning that the early-2023 stock rebound would fail.Reversed
“sell”
WhereTwitter post (later deleted)
The callStocks would fall (no level or date given)
What happenedOn Mar 30, 2023 Burry posted, then deleted, ’I was wrong to say to sell.’ The S&P 500 was at 4,076.60 on Jan 31 and 4,050.83 on Mar 30, 2023; the Nasdaq-100 ETF QQQ rose from $294.62 to $315.68 over the same span.
Price since^GSPC closed at $4,076.60 (Jan. 31, 2023) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 89%.
NoteBoth posts were deleted, so wording relies on contemporaneous reporting (some outlets quote the retraction as ’I was wrong to say sell’).
Source: Leaders.com, Mar 31, 2023 · Outcome: Leaders.com, Mar 31, 2023
4Aug. 14, 2023S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 puts (2023)Scion’s 13F for Q2 2023 disclosed put options on 2 million SPY shares ($886.6 million reported value) and 2 million QQQ shares ($738.8 million), about $1.6 billion in total.Reversed
WhereScion Asset Management 13F-HR for quarter ended Jun 30, 2023 (filed Aug 14, 2023)
The callBearish bet on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 (no strikes or expiries disclosed)
What happenedThe Q3 2023 13F, filed Nov 14, 2023, no longer listed SPY or QQQ puts. SPY fell from $443.28 at Jun 30 to $427.48 at Sep 30, 2023 (about 3.6%), then rose; it closed at $769.66 on Oct 27, 2026.
Price sinceSPY closed at $443.28 (June 30, 2023) and $769.66 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 74%.
NoteThe $1.6 billion is notional value of the shares underlying the puts, not money Scion spent; the premium paid was likely far smaller. Some press read this as a ’crash bet’; the puts could also have been hedges. Whether Scion profited is not disclosed. The Q3 2023 filing showed a new put on the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
Source: SEC EDGAR, Scion 13F-HR, filed Aug 14, 2023 · Outcome: SEC EDGAR, Scion 13F-HR for Q3 2023, filed Nov 14, 2023
5Nov. 3, 2025Palantir putsScion’s 13F for Q3 2025 disclosed put options on 5 million Palantir shares, with a reported value of $912.1 million.Not yet due
WhereScion Asset Management 13F-HR for quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 (filed Nov 3, 2025)
The callBearish bet on PLTR; in Sep 2026 Burry said he rolled it into a larger put position centered on a September 2027 expiry with strikes in the low $100s
What happenedScion deregistered with the SEC (status ’terminated’ as of Nov 10, 2025), so no later 13Fs exist. On Sep 28, 2026 Burry wrote in his newsletter that he had ’replaced and rolled the Palantir short and put position into an enlarged put position’ expiring around September 2027. PLTR closed at $182.42 on Sep 30, 2025 and $198.73 on Oct 27, 2026.
Price sincePLTR closed at $182.42 (Sept. 30, 2025) and $198.73 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 9%.
NoteReported value is notional (5,000,000 x $182.42), not cost. The premium Scion actually paid is not disclosed in the filing. Since the fund closed, his positions are self-reported in his Substack ’Cassandra Unchained’.
Source: SEC EDGAR, Scion 13F-HR, filed Nov 3, 2025 · Outcome: CNBC, Sep 28, 2026; CNBC, Nov 13, 2025 (deregistration)
6Nov. 3, 2025Nvidia putsScion’s 13F for Q3 2025 disclosed put options on 1 million Nvidia shares, with a reported value of $186.6 million.Not yet due
WhereScion Asset Management 13F-HR for quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 (filed Nov 3, 2025)
The callBearish bet on NVDA (no strike or expiry disclosed)
What happenedNo later filing shows whether the Nvidia puts were kept, since Scion deregistered in November 2025. NVDA closed at $186.58 on Sep 30, 2025 and $217.94 on Oct 27, 2026. Burry has kept writing about an AI bubble; in September 2026 he said he was ’moving timelines up.’
Price sinceNVDA closed at $186.58 (Sept. 30, 2025) and $217.94 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 17%.
NoteNo deadline was ever disclosed. Reported value is notional, not cost. Scion’s Q1 2025 13F had also shown Nvidia puts (Bloomberg, May 16, 2025).
Source: SEC EDGAR, Scion 13F-HR, filed Nov 3, 2025 · Outcome: CNBC, Nov 13, 2025
7Sept. 28, 2026AI bubble timing (2026)Burry said the AI bubble ’may burst sooner than later’ and swapped short positions in Micron, Nebius and the iShares Semiconductor ETF for put options expiring between June and September 2027.Not yet due
“Fundamentally, I am moving timelines up”
WhereCassandra Unchained newsletter, reported by CNBC
The callAI-linked stocks fall by mid to late 2027 (Micron puts June 2027 near $500 strikes; SOXX puts September 2027 in the low $400s)
What happenedAs of Oct 27, 2026, SOXX closed at $511.06 (from $560.79 on Sep 28, 2026) and Micron at $928.76 (from $1,053.98).
Price sinceSOXX closed at $560.79 (Sept. 28, 2026) and $511.06 (Oct. 27, 2026), down 9%.
NotePositions are self-reported in his newsletter; no regulatory filing confirms them.
Source: CNBC, Sep 28, 2026 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
Tom Lee
Head of Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors
Publishes a year-end S&P 500 target every year, often the most bullish on the Street.
Dated promises: when each was made, the deadline, and what happened
- Promise window
- Past the deadline
- Delivered
- Today
S&P 500 since the first call, monthly, adjusted for splits
1Dec. 22, 2021S&P 500 year-end 2022Lee said the S&P 500 would gain at least 11% in 2022 to reach 5,100 by year-end, with most of the gain after a difficult first half.Missed the date
WhereCNBC Fast Money, reported by Invezz
The callS&P 500 at 5,100 at the end of 2022
What happenedThe S&P 500 ended 2022 at 3,839.50, down 19.4% for the year. It first closed above 5,100 on Mar 1, 2024.
Price since^GSPC closed at $4,696.56 (Dec. 22, 2021) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 64%.
NoteMedium confidence: the Invezz page blocks automated reading, so the target and date come from search-result text of that article. Later 2022 reports (search results, not opened) say Lee kept the 5,100 target into mid-2022.
Source: Invezz, Dec 22, 2021 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
2June 27, 2023S&P 500 year-end 2023Lee entered 2023 with a 4,750 year-end target for the S&P 500, then the highest on Wall Street.Came true
WhereFundstrat 2023 outlook, as reported by The Motley Fool
The callS&P 500 at 4,750 at the end of 2023
What happenedThe S&P 500 ended 2023 at 4,769.83, 0.4% above the target.
Price since^GSPC closed at $4,378.41 (June 27, 2023) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 76%.
Notesaid_date is the date of the earliest source we could open; the target was set around the turn of 2022 into 2023 (the article says Lee ’entered 2023’ with it). Lee raised the target to 4,825 in mid-2023.
Source: The Motley Fool, Jun 27, 2023 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
3Dec. 11, 2023S&P 500 year-end 2024Lee set a 2024 year-end S&P 500 target of 5,200, a 12% to 15% gain.Came true
“Our 2024 [year end] target is 5,200 which is 20x 2025 EPS of $260.”
WhereFundstrat 2024 outlook, quoted by TheStreet (syndicated in Hermiston Herald)
The callS&P 500 at 5,200 at the end of 2024
What happenedThe S&P 500 ended 2024 at 5,881.63, 13% above the target. Lee raised his target during the year and called for 6,000 by October 2024.
Price since^GSPC closed at $4,622.44 (Dec. 11, 2023) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 67%.
NoteVerdict rule for bullish year-end targets: ’came true’ when the index finished at or above the target. In early December 2024 Lee also said on CNBC the index could reach 6,300 by the end of 2024 (Benzinga); that shorter call was not met but is not scored here because we could not open the source.
Source: Hermiston Herald (TheStreet syndication), Dec 11, 2023 · Outcome: The Motley Fool, Jan 9, 2025; Yahoo Finance prices
4Dec. 15, 2024S&P 500 year-end 2025In his 2025 Year Ahead outlook Lee set a 2025 year-end S&P 500 target of 6,600, and he repeated it on CNBC in June 2025.Came true
WhereFundstrat 2025 Year Ahead outlook
The callS&P 500 at 6,600 at the end of 2025
What happenedThe S&P 500 ended 2025 at 6,845.50, 3.7% above the target. It first closed above 6,600 on Sep 15, 2025.
Price since^GSPC closed at $6,051.09 (Dec. 13, 2024) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 28%.
Notesaid_date uses Fundstrat’s ’Tom Lee Releases 2025 Outlook’ snapshot dated Dec 15, 2024. The outlook also had a 7,000 mid-year target, which was not reached by mid-2025.
Source: Fundstrat Direct, Jun 30, 2025 (confirms the December 2024 target) · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
5Dec. 14, 2025S&P 500 year-end 2026Lee’s 2026 outlook saw the S&P 500 ending 2026 at 7,700; he raised the target to 8,000 on Jun 24, 2026.Not yet due
WhereFundstrat 2026 outlook (FS Insight snapshot)
The callS&P 500 at 7,700 at the end of 2026 (later raised to 8,000)
What happenedThe S&P 500 closed at 7,722.60 on Oct 27, 2026, above 7,700 and below 8,000. Its 2026 high close so far is 7,818.93 on Oct 6, 2026.
Price since^GSPC closed at $6,827.41 (Dec. 12, 2025) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 13%.
NoteYear-end is two months away.
Source: FS Insight, Dec 14, 2025 · Outcome: S&P 500 daily closes (Yahoo Finance)
Mike Wilson
Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley
His yearly S&P 500 targets and intra-year calls are among the most followed on Wall Street, after he called the 2022 bear market and then stayed bearish through the 2023 rally.
Dated promises: when each was made, the deadline, and what happened
- Promise window
- Past the deadline
- Delivered
- Today
S&P 500 since the first call, monthly, adjusted for splits
1Nov. 15, 2021S&P 500 year-end 2022In Morgan Stanley’s 2022 outlook, Wilson set a year-end 2022 S&P 500 target of 4,400, about 5% below where the index traded, citing slowing earnings growth, rising bond yields and supply chain costs.Came true
“Underneath the surface we think there are a number of reasons to suggest that global equities’ serene progress over the last 18 months will become somewhat more volatile going forward as earnings growth slows, bond yields rise, and corporates continue to juggle the challenges of disrupted supply chains and elevated input costs”
WhereMorgan Stanley 2022 outlook note, reported by CNBC
The callS&P 500 at 4,400 at the end of 2022 (a decline of about 5%)
What happenedThe S&P 500 ended 2022 at 3,839.50, down 19.4% for the year and below the 4,400 target. Its closing low for the year was 3,577.03 on Oct 12, 2022.
Price since^GSPC closed at $4,682.80 (Nov. 15, 2021) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 65%.
NoteCNBC says the firm had ’recently set’ the target, so Nov 15, 2021 is the source date. The direction was right and the decline turned out larger than the target implied. During 2022 Wilson kept a bearish stance and cut his path forecasts (June 2023 base case of 3,900, bear case of 3,350). Wilson had called for a 10% to 20% correction in mid-2021 that did not happen, and admitted in this note that his 2021 targets ’proved to be too conservative’.
Source: CNBC, Nov 15, 2021 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
2Aug. 1, 2022Summer 2022 bear rallyAfter a 9% July gain, Wilson said the rally was a short window before earnings disappointed. He said the S&P 500 could bottom at 3,400 to 3,500 without a recession, or fall toward 3,000 in a recession.Came true
“We think that window is now but it can shut quickly. Risk reward is poor after the recent rally so trade accordingly as time may be running out”
WhereMorgan Stanley client note, reported by CNBC
The callRally fades and the S&P 500 makes a lower low, near 3,400 to 3,500 without a recession (3,000 with one)
What happenedThe S&P 500 rose another 4.5% to 4,305.20 on Aug 16, 2022, then fell 16.9% to a closing low of 3,577.03 on Oct 12, 2022, below the June low. The intraday low was 3,491.58 on Oct 13, inside his no-recession range. No recession was declared.
Price since^GSPC closed at $4,118.63 (Aug. 1, 2022) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 88%.
NoteHe called the late-June bounce a ’bear market bounce with lower lows ahead’ (CNBC, Jun 27, 2022) and called the post-Fed jump a ’trap’ on Jul 27, 2022. On Sep 6, 2022 he added a forecast of a fourth-quarter low around 3,400 (CNBC, Sep 6, 2022). The October 2022 closing low held as the bear market bottom.
Source: CNBC, Aug 1, 2022 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
3Nov. 14, 2022S&P 500 year-end 2023Wilson set a year-end 2023 S&P 500 target of 3,900 and said the index would first fall to 3,000 to 3,300 in the first quarter of 2023 as earnings estimates came down, before rebounding later in the year.Missed the date
“While our year end 2023 base case price target of 3,900 is roughly in line with where we’re currently trading, it won’t be a smooth ride. We remain highly convicted that 2023 bottom up consensus earnings are materially too high”
WhereMorgan Stanley 2023 U.S. Equities Outlook, reported by CNBC
The callS&P 500 falls to 3,000 to 3,300 in early 2023, then ends 2023 at 3,900
What happenedThe S&P 500’s lowest close in the first half of 2023 was 3,808.10 on Jan 5, so the 3,000 to 3,300 range was never reached. The index ended 2023 at 4,769.83, up 24.2% for the year and 22% above the 3,900 target.
Price since^GSPC closed at $3,957.25 (Nov. 14, 2022) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 95%.
NoteOn CNBC’s Fast Money (Nov 29, 2022) he said: “You should expect an S&P between 3,000 and 3,300 some time in probably the first four months of the year.” He held the view through 2023, calling the spring rally a bear market rally and, on Oct 16, 2023, still forecasting 3,900 by year-end (CNBC, Oct 16, 2023).
Source: CNBC, Nov 14, 2022 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
4Nov. 13, 2023S&P 500 target for 2024In his 2024 outlook, Wilson forecast the S&P 500 at 4,500 over the next 12 months, less than 2% above its level then, with earnings weak into early 2024 before a recovery.Missed the date
“Near-term uncertainty should give way to an earnings recovery as we progress through next year”
WhereMorgan Stanley 2024 outlook note, reported by CNBC
The callS&P 500 at 4,500 by the end of 2024 (12-month target)
What happenedThe S&P 500 closed above 4,500 two days later (Nov 15, 2023) and ended 2024 at 5,881.63, 31% above the target.
Price since^GSPC closed at $4,411.55 (Nov. 13, 2023) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 75%.
NoteMorgan Stanley framed 4,500 as a 12-month target; CNBC later described it as his end-2024 call. On May 20, 2024 he raised his forecast to 5,400 by the second quarter of 2025 (CNBC, May 20, 2024). The S&P 500 first closed above 5,400 on Jun 12, 2024 and was at 6,204.95 at the end of June 2025.
Source: CNBC, Nov 13, 2023 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
5Nov. 18, 2024S&P 500 target for 2025Wilson forecast the S&P 500 at 6,500 in 2025, about 11% above its level then, with a bull case of 7,400 and a bear case of 4,600. He cited Fed rate cuts and the election result, and warned that higher rates and a stronger dollar were risks.Came true
“The combination of the Fed rate cutting cycle with the election result has the potential to drive broad sentiment materially higher”
WhereMorgan Stanley 2025 outlook note, reported by CNBC
The callS&P 500 at 6,500 in 2025 (12-month target)
What happenedThe S&P 500 fell to a closing low of 4,982.77 on Apr 8, 2025 after the tariff announcements, first closed above 6,500 on Aug 28, 2025, and ended 2025 at 6,845.50, above the target.
Price since^GSPC closed at $5,893.62 (Nov. 18, 2024) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 31%.
NoteHe kept the 6,500 target through the April 2025 sell-off. On May 21, 2025 he wrote that ’we think that the price lows are in assuming we don’t experience a deep recession’ (CNBC, May 22, 2025); the S&P 500 did not close below 5,802 again through Oct 27, 2026.
Source: CNBC, Nov 18, 2024 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
6Nov. 16, 2025S&P 500 target for 2026In Morgan Stanley’s 2026 outlook, Wilson forecast the S&P 500 at 7,800 over the next 12 months, about 16% above its level then, citing earnings growth, pricing power and AI-driven efficiency. In May 2026 he raised the year-end 2026 target to 8,000.Not yet due
“Key drivers of our bullish earnings/cash flow view include a return of positive operating leverage, greater pricing power, AI-driven efficiency gains, accommodative tax and regulatory policies that facilitate a public to private growth transition, and contained interest rates throughout the curve”
WhereMorgan Stanley 2026 global strategy outlook, reported by CNBC
The callS&P 500 at 7,800 within 12 months; raised to 8,000 by the end of 2026
What happenedThe S&P 500 closed at 7,818.93 on Oct 6, 2026, its high for the year and above the original 7,800 target. On Oct 27, 2026 it closed at 7,722.60, 3.5% below the raised 8,000 target, with two months left.
Price since^GSPC closed at $6,734.11 (Nov. 14, 2025) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 15%.
NoteThe outlook note was released Sunday, Nov 16, 2025 (CNBC report dated Nov 17). On May 13, 2026 Morgan Stanley raised its year-end target to 8,000 from 7,800 and set a mid-2027 target of 8,300 (Newsquawk, May 13, 2026; Investor Daily, May 14, 2026). In late July 2026 he said the index could dip toward 7,000 before reaching 8,000 (secondary report, parameter.io, Jul 28, 2026).
Source: CNBC, Nov 17, 2025 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
7March 30, 20262026 correction near endDuring the spring 2026 sell-off tied to the Iran war and higher oil prices, Wilson said there was growing evidence the S&P 500 correction was in its ending stages, with rising Treasury yields (around 4.5% on the 10-year) as the main near-term risk.Came true
WhereMorgan Stanley client note, reported by CNBC
The callThe S&P 500 correction ends soon
What happenedThe S&P 500’s Mar 30, 2026 close of 6,343.72 was its lowest close of 2026. It gained 17% by mid-May and stood at 7,722.60 on Oct 27, 2026, up 21.7%.
Price since^GSPC closed at $6,343.72 (March 30, 2026) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 22%.
NoteNo exact target was attached. He noted more than half of Russell 3000 stocks were down over 20% and the forward P/E had fallen 17%, matching past growth scares without a recession.
Source: CNBC, Mar 30, 2026 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
Jamie Dimon
Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase
He runs the largest U.S. bank and his economic, rate and market warnings get wide coverage and move sentiment.
Dated promises: when each was made, the deadline, and what happened
- Promise window
- Past the deadline
- Delivered
- Today
BTC-USD since the first call, monthly, adjusted for splits
S&P 500 since the first call, monthly, adjusted for splits
1Sept. 12, 2017Bitcoin ’fraud’ (2017)At a Barclays banking conference, Dimon called bitcoin ’a fraud,’ said it was ’worse than tulip bulbs’ and ’won’t end well,’ and said he would fire any JPMorgan trader caught trading it.Mixed
“Currencies have legal support. It will blow up.”
WhereBarclays Global Financial Services Conference, New York
The callBitcoin would blow up (no date or price given)
What happenedBitcoin rose from $4,130.81 to a close of $19,497.40 on Dec 16, 2017, then fell 83% to $3,236.76 on Dec 15, 2018. It later recovered and set new records, peaking at $124,752.53 on Oct 6, 2025. It closed at $80,006.66 on Oct 26, 2026, about 19 times its price on the day of the call.
Price sinceBTC-USD closed at $4,130.81 (Sept. 12, 2017) and $80,006.66 (Oct. 26, 2026), up 1,837%.
NoteOn Jan 9, 2018 he told Fox Business he regretted calling bitcoin a fraud (CNBC, Jan 9, 2018: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/jamie-dimon-says-he-regrets-calling-bitcoin-a-fraud.html). He later returned to the criticism, in January 2023 at Davos, in a CNBC clip headlined ’Bitcoin is a hyped-up fraud’ (CNBC, Jan 19, 2023) and saying in March 2024 he would never personally buy one. In January 2019 he said he took no satisfaction in its 80% drop. BTC prices are Yahoo daily closes in UTC; Yahoo had no Oct 27, 2026 close yet, so the latest uses Oct 26.
Source: CNBC, Sep 12, 2017 · Outcome: CNBC, Jan 23, 2019; Yahoo Finance prices
2Jan. 14, 2022Fed hikes in 2022On JPMorgan’s fourth-quarter 2021 earnings call, Dimon said he expected more Fed rate increases than markets were pricing in, with a good chance of more than four and possibly six or seven. Swaps at the time implied three to four quarter-point hikes in 2022.Came true
“My view is a pretty good chance there will be more than four. It could be six or seven.”
WhereJPMorgan Q4 2021 earnings call with analysts
The callMore than four Fed rate increases, possibly six or seven (no year stated in the quote; the context was 2022 pricing)
What happenedThe Fed raised its target range seven times in 2022 (Mar 17, May 5, Jun 16, Jul 28, Sep 22, Nov 3, Dec 15), from 0 to 0.25% up to 4.25 to 4.50%. Four of those moves were 0.75 point, so the total tightening was larger than six or seven quarter-point hikes.
Price since^GSPC closed at $4,662.85 (Jan. 14, 2022) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 66%.
NoteBloomberg reported he did not say how quickly the hikes would come. The S&P 500 is shown only for market context; it fell from 4,662.85 on the call date to a 2022 low close of 3,577.03 on Oct 12, 2022.
Source: Fortune (Bloomberg), Jan 14, 2022 · Outcome: Federal Reserve, Open Market Operations (target rate history)
3June 1, 2022Economic ’hurricane’Speaking at a financial conference in New York, Dimon upgraded his ’storm clouds’ warning to an economic hurricane, citing the Fed’s quantitative tightening and the Ukraine war’s effect on commodities. He said conditions were fine for now and nobody knew if it would be ’a minor one or Superstorm Sandy,’ and he told investors to brace themselves.Mixed
“That hurricane is right out there, down the road, coming our way.”
WhereFinancial conference in New York (as reported by CNBC)
The callA severe economic storm of unknown size (no date or market level given)
What happenedStocks fell further: the S&P 500 dropped from 4,101.23 on Jun 1 to a closing low of 3,577.03 on Oct 12, 2022 (down 12.8%), as the Fed raised rates by 0.75 point four times in a row. No recession followed: NBER’s latest dated cycle is the February 2020 peak and April 2020 trough.
Price since^GSPC closed at $4,101.23 (June 1, 2022) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 88%.
NoteHe left the size open (’a minor one or Superstorm Sandy’). He also said oil could hit $150 or $175 a barrel; EIA daily Brent peaked at about $129 the week after his remarks and stayed below $150 through Oct 2026 (high of $138.21 in April 2026).
Source: CNBC, Jun 1, 2022 · Outcome: NBER Business Cycle Dating (checked Oct 27, 2026); Federal Reserve rate history; Yahoo Finance prices
4Oct. 10, 2022Recession in 6 to 9 monthsDimon said inflation, rising rates, quantitative tightening and the Ukraine war were likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession in six to nine months, ranging from very mild to quite hard. Asked about the S&P 500, he said it could fall ’another easy 20%’ from there.Missed the date
“they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now”
WhereCNBC interview at the JPM Techstars conference, London
The callU.S. recession by roughly April to July 2023; S&P 500 possibly 20% lower (about 2,890 from 3,612)
What happenedNBER has not dated any recession after April 2020, so no recession began in that window. The S&P 500 closed at 3,612.39 that day, hit its low close of 3,577.03 two days later (1% lower), and ended Jul 10, 2023 at 4,409.53.
Price since^GSPC closed at $3,612.39 (Oct. 10, 2022) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 114%.
NoteHe framed it as ’likely’ and said a recession could range from very mild to quite hard. Europe, he said, was already in recession. In March 2024 he still put the odds of some kind of recession at about 65% (CNBC/Reuters, Mar 11, 2024).
Source: CNBC, Oct 10, 2022 · Outcome: NBER Business Cycle Dating (checked Oct 27, 2026); Yahoo Finance prices
5May 1, 2023Bank crisis ’over’ (2023)After JPMorgan bought most of First Republic from the FDIC, Dimon told analysts there were only so many banks caught offsides by rising rates, that there might be another smaller one, and that the deal pretty much resolved them all. He added that rate-hike risks to assets like real estate remained down the road.Came true
“This part of the crisis is over.”
WhereJPMorgan analyst call on the First Republic acquisition
The callNo more large bank failures from the spring 2023 run (he allowed for another smaller one)
What happenedFirst Republic (May 1, 2023) was the last of the large 2023 failures. The FDIC’s failed-bank list shows only small banks since then; the best known was Republic First Bank of Philadelphia (closed Apr 26, 2024), and nine more community banks failed through Sep 25, 2026.
Price since^GSPC closed at $4,167.87 (May 1, 2023) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 85%.
NoteRegional bank stocks kept sliding for days afterward (CNBC reported PacWest shares fell nearly 28% and the regional bank ETF KRE sank 6.3% on May 2, 2023). In his Apr 4, 2023 shareholder letter he had written that ’the current crisis is not yet over.’ The S&P 500 is shown for market context only.
Source: CNBC, May 1, 2023 · Outcome: FDIC Failed Bank List (downloaded Oct 27, 2026)
6Oct. 8, 2025Stock correction warningDimon told the BBC there was a higher risk of a serious fall in U.S. stocks than the market reflected, and that a serious correction could come in the next six months to two years. He cited geopolitics, fiscal spending and remilitarisation. Fortune reported he put the odds at about 30% versus the 10% he thought the market was pricing in.Not yet due
“I am far more worried about that than others”
WhereBBC interview in Bournemouth, UK
The callA serious U.S. stock market correction within six months to two years
What happenedSo far the S&P 500 is up 14.3%, from 6,753.72 to 7,722.60. Its largest decline since the interview was 9.1%, from 6,978.60 on Jan 27, 2026 to 6,343.72 on Mar 30, 2026, just short of the usual 10% correction line. It set a record close of 7,818.93 on Oct 6, 2026.
Price since^GSPC closed at $6,753.72 (Oct. 8, 2025) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 14%.
NoteHe did not define ’serious correction’ in the BBC piece. Fortune quotes him: ’if the market’s pricing in 10%… I would say it’s more like 30 [percent],’ and ’Bull markets could go on a lot longer than you think.’ The window runs to about Oct 2027.
Source: BBC, Oct 8, 2025 · Outcome: Fortune, Oct 9, 2025; Yahoo Finance prices
Bill Ackman
Founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management
He makes big, public, dated bets (shorts, hedges and activist stakes) that are documented in SEC filings and Pershing Square’s own letters, so the results can be checked.
HLF since the first call, monthly, adjusted for splits
FNMA since the first call, monthly, adjusted for splits
1Dec. 20, 2012Herbalife shortAt a three-hour presentation in New York, Ackman said Herbalife was a pyramid scheme, confirmed Pershing Square held a large short position, and said he believed the stock would eventually fall to zero.Reversed
WherePershing Square presentation ’Who wants to be a millionaire?’ at an event in New York
The callHerbalife shares would eventually go to zero
What happenedHerbalife was never shut down as a pyramid scheme. In July 2016 it settled with the FTC by paying $200 million and restructuring its US distributor pay rules, without being classed as a pyramid scheme. Pershing Square converted its short into put options in Nov 2017 and fully exited on Feb 28, 2018, the day HLF hit an all-time high (about $46 on a split-adjusted basis, roughly 2.7 times the price at the presentation). HLF later fell and closed at $13.47 on Oct 27, 2026, below its Dec 2012 level, years after Pershing had closed the bet.
Price sinceHLF closed at $16.85 (Dec. 20, 2012) and $13.47 (Oct. 27, 2026), down 20%.
NoteAckman first confirmed the short a day earlier (Dec 19, 2012), when HLF fell 12%. The call-date source is a trade-press story citing Reuters; the ’go to zero’ wording is reported speech, so words is null. Ackman said he would give his personal profits from the short to charity. Carl Icahn took the other side and the two argued live on CNBC on Jan 25, 2013. FTC settlement source: https://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Article/2016/07/15/Herbalife-agrees-to-200-million-fine-restructuring-to-settle-FTC-case . Prices are split-adjusted for HLF’s 2:1 split in May 2018 (unadjusted close on Dec 20, 2012 was about $33.70).
Source: SupplySide Supplement Journal (citing Reuters), Dec 20, 2012 · Outcome: CNBC, Feb 28, 2018; NutraIngredients-USA, Jul 15, 2016 (FTC settlement); Yahoo Finance daily closes
2Nov. 15, 2013Fannie and Freddie stakePershing Square disclosed it owned 9.98% of Fannie Mae’s common stock (and 9.77% of Freddie Mac), bought for about $265 million (about $2.29 a share for Fannie), and called the common shares undervalued. At the Sohn conference on May 6, 2014 Ackman set price targets of $23 a share, or $47 in a bull case, if the companies were recapitalized and released from government control.Not yet due
“The Reporting Persons believe that the Issuer’s common stock is undervalued and is an attractive investment.”
WhereSEC Schedule 13D filing; later Sohn Investment Conference presentation (May 6, 2014)
The callFannie Mae and Freddie Mac exit conservatorship and the common stock is re-rated; Sohn 2014 targets $23 base case, $47 bull case
What happenedAs of Oct 27, 2026 both companies are still in federal conservatorship and no IPO or relisting has happened. FNMA rose from about $1 in early 2024 to above $12 in Oct 2025 on exit and IPO hopes, then fell through 2026 as the timeline slipped: FHFA Director Bill Pulte said the companies would stay in conservatorship while the government considered selling a small stake, and in Sept 2026 KBW cut its Fannie target to $3.50. FNMA closed at $4.29 on Oct 27, 2026: above Pershing’s 2013 cost of about $2.29 and the $3.30 close on the filing date, far below the $23 to $47 targets.
Price sinceFNMA closed at $3.30 (Nov. 15, 2013) and $4.29 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 30%.
NoteThe call has no deadline, so it is scored ’not yet’. In 2014 Ackman said the companies would need about $183 billion of capital, which could be built from earnings in 7 to 10 years (Market Folly notes from Sohn, May 6, 2014: https://www.marketfolly.com/2014/05/bill-ackman-on-fannie-freddie-sohn.html). On Nov 18, 2025 Ackman posted a plan on X to have Treasury treat its senior preferred as repaid, exercise its warrants for about 79.9% of the common, and relist the companies on the NYSE; he argued against a rushed government share sale. Pershing stopped reporting the exact size of its stake years ago. Prices for FNMA (OTC) are from Yahoo.
Source: SEC Schedule 13D (Fannie Mae), Nov 15, 2013 · Outcome: NAMU, Sep 29, 2026; Yahoo Finance daily closes
3March 25, 2015Valeant stakePershing Square disclosed a stake of about 5.7% in Valeant Pharmaceuticals, including 3 million shares bought in Valeant’s March 2015 share offering for $597 million (about $199 a share), and backed the company’s management and strategy.Reversed
“The Reporting Persons think highly of the Issuer’s management team, strategy, and track record.”
WhereSEC Schedule 13D filing
The callValeant shares would be a strong long-term investment
What happenedValeant collapsed in late 2015 and 2016 amid scrutiny of its drug pricing and accounting. Ackman joined the board in March 2016. On Mar 13, 2017 Pershing Square announced it had sold its entire Valeant investment to realize a large tax loss; the shares fell to $10.89 on the NYSE the next day, and press reports put the loss at about $3 billion to $4 billion. Pershing Square had its worst year in 2015, down about 20%.
NotePershing had first teamed with Valeant in 2014 on a failed bid for Allergan, then bought Valeant shares in early 2015 and raised the stake to about 9.9% by Nov 2015 (13D/A). The press release said the position had shrunk to 1.5% to 3% of the funds but took a disproportionate amount of time. CBC source: https://amp.cbc.ca/lite/story/1.4023891 . Valeant is now Bausch Health (BHC); no price chart is attached to keep this page to two tickers.
Source: SEC Schedule 13D (Valeant), Mar 25, 2015 · Outcome: Pershing Square press release (reposted by Practical Dermatology), Mar 13, 2017; CBC News, Mar 14, 2017
4March 3, 2020Coronavirus credit hedgeWorried the coronavirus would hurt the US and global economy and markets, Pershing Square bought large credit-default-swap hedges on US investment-grade and high-yield credit indexes and the European investment-grade index, and disclosed them in a press release on Mar 3, 2020.Came true
WherePershing Square press release, Mar 3, 2020 (as described in the 2019 annual report)
The callCredit and equity markets would fall sharply because of the coronavirus
What happenedMarkets fell hard: the S&P 500 dropped from 3,003.37 on Mar 3 to 2,237.40 on Mar 23, 2020. The hedges peaked at $2.7 billion. Pershing exited them between Mar 12 and Mar 23, 2020 for total proceeds of $2.6 billion against $27 million of premiums and commissions, and used the money to add to its stock holdings at lower prices.
NoteThe original Mar 3, 2020 press release was not opened directly; its date and content come from the annual report letter. On Mar 18, 2020, while still unwinding the hedges, Ackman told CNBC’s Halftime Report ’Hell is coming’ and urged a 30-day national shutdown (Mediaite, Mar 18, 2020: https://www.mediaite.com/media/tv/hedge-fund-heavy-bill-ackman-warns-cnbc-that-hell-is-coming-in-stunning-interview-america-will-end-as-we-know-it/). The interview drew criticism because Pershing stood to gain; Ackman said the hedges protected investors and the firm had been buying stocks. The S&P 500 bottomed on Mar 23, 2020, the day the exit was completed.
Source: Pershing Square Holdings 2019 Annual Report, Apr 2020 · Outcome: Pershing Square Holdings 2019 Annual Report, Apr 2020; Yahoo Finance S&P 500 closes
5Aug. 2, 2023Short 30-year TreasuriesAckman said Pershing Square was short 30-year US Treasuries in size, through options, as a hedge against higher long-term rates hurting stocks and as a stand-alone bet. He cited heavy Treasury issuance, quantitative tightening and long-term inflation that could settle closer to 3%.Came true
“There are few macro investments that still offer reasonably probable asymmetric payoffs, and this is one of them.”
WherePost on X, reported by Fortune
The call30-year Treasury yields would rise (bond prices fall)
What happenedThe 30-year yield rose from 4.17% on Aug 2, 2023 to above 5% by mid-October. On Oct 23, 2023 Ackman said Pershing had covered the short because there was ’too much risk in the world’; the yield was 5.01% that day, so the bet was profitable when closed. The 30-year yield was 5.31% on Oct 26, 2026.
NoteFortune’s Aug 3 story says Ackman posted on Wednesday (Aug 2, 2023); much coverage dates it Aug 3. Yields from FRED series DGS30 (4.32% on Aug 3, 2023). CNBC quoted the cover post: ’There is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates. We covered our bond short.’ The position was held through options, which capped the downside.
Source: Fortune, Aug 3, 2023 · Outcome: CNBC, Oct 23, 2023; FRED DGS30
Jeremy Grantham
Co-founder, long-term investment strategist and board chairman of GMO
His dated GMO letters have called major bubbles and bottoms for decades (2000, 2007, 2009), and his recent superbubble and AI bubble warnings are some of the most quoted bearish calls in markets.
Dated promises: when each was made, the deadline, and what happened
- Promise window
- Past the deadline
- Delivered
- Today
S&P 500 since the first call, monthly, adjusted for splits
1Jan. 31, 2000Lost decade forecast (2000)At the height of the dot-com bubble, GMO forecast that the S&P 500 would return -1.9% a year after inflation over the next ten years, assuming valuations and profit margins would fall back to their long-run averages.Came true
WhereGMO asset class forecast, January 2000 (as described in a GMO paper co-written by Grantham, Jan 28, 2026)
The callS&P 500 real return of about -1.9% a year for 2000 to 2009
What happenedThe S&P 500 closed 1999 at 1,469.25 and 2009 at 1,115.10. Including dividends (SPY adjusted close) it returned about -1.0% a year, and consumer prices rose about 2.6% a year, so the real return was about -3.5% a year, worse than the forecast. The Nasdaq Composite fell from a 5,048.62 close on Mar 10, 2000 to 1,114.11 on Oct 9, 2002.
Price since^GSPC closed at $1,394.46 (Jan. 31, 2000) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 454%.
NoteThe forecast’s wording is known from GMO’s own 2026 retrospective (the passage sits in Edward Chancellor’s section of the paper and says ’In January 2000, we predicted that the S&P 500 would deliver real returns of -1.9% a year over the next decade’). We could not open a copy of the January 2000 forecast itself (the Wayback Machine was offline), and the month is given without a day, so Jan 31, 2000 is used as a placeholder. Separately, Institutional Investor (Jul 31, 2003) reported that a few weeks after the March 2000 peak Grantham publicly predicted the Nasdaq Composite would fall from 5,000 to 1,250 and the S&P 500 from 1,500 to 750. The Nasdaq closed below 1,250 on Jul 23, 2002; the S&P bottomed at 776.76 in Oct 2002 and did not close below 750 until Feb 23, 2009 (https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b15135n573661p/the-messenger-shoots-back).
Source: GMO, ’Valuing AI: Extreme Bubble, New Golden Era, or Both’, Jan 28, 2026 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance daily closes for ^GSPC, SPY and ^IXIC; FRED CPIAUCSL (Dec 1999 168.8, Dec 2009 217.347)
2April 30, 2007First global bubble (2007)After a round-the-world trip, Grantham wrote that nearly every asset class worldwide was in a bubble driven by cheap, abundant credit, that every bubble has always burst, and that the bust would hit all countries and assets except high-grade bonds, with risk premiums widening. He said timing was the tricky part and that the bubble might first have a final sharp run-up.Came true
“The bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds.”
WhereGMO Quarterly Letter, ’It’s Everywhere, In Everything: The First Truly Global Bubble’
The callA global bust across stocks, credit and other risk assets, with high-grade bonds the likely exception
What happenedThe S&P 500 peaked at 1,565.15 on Oct 9, 2007 and fell 57% to 676.53 on Mar 9, 2009. Credit spreads blew out in the 2008 financial crisis, and the US was in recession from December 2007 to June 2009 (NBER).
Price since^GSPC closed at $1,482.37 (April 30, 2007) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 421%.
NoteThe letter is dated April 2007 with no day, so Apr 30, 2007 is used. It gave no date for the bust and warned that ’pessimists or conservatives will take considerably more pain’ if the bubble had an exponential final phase first. The S&P 500 rose another 5.6% to its October 2007 peak before the decline. In October 2007 Grantham was quoted predicting ’a modest up year’ with major bearish behavior likely to wait 12 to 18 months (per a CXO Advisory compilation of his forecasts).
Source: GMO Quarterly Letter, Apr 2007 · Outcome: NBER business cycle dates; Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily closes
3March 10, 2009Reinvesting When TerrifiedIn the depths of the financial crisis Grantham urged investors to have a written plan for putting cash back into stocks and to follow it, said GMO had already made a large reinvestment move in October 2008, and put the S&P 500’s fair value at 900. He also said there was still a 50/50 chance the index would cross below 600 and that value investors always buy too early in busts.Came true
“For the record, we now believe the S&P is worth 900 at fair value or 30% above today’s price.”
WhereGMO, ’Reinvesting When Terrified’ (views as of Mar 4, 2009)
The callS&P 500 fair value of 900 (about 30% above the market then); 50/50 odds of a drop below 600 first
What happenedThe S&P 500 bottomed at 676.53 on Mar 9, 2009, the day before the letter’s posting date, and never fell below 600. It closed above 900 on May 4, 2009 (907.24) and stands at 7,722.60 on Oct 27, 2026.
Price since^GSPC closed at $719.60 (March 10, 2009) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 973%.
NoteThe letter’s views run through Mar 4, 2009 (S&P close 712.87); the GMO page is dated Mar 10, 2009. The bullish call came true; the 50/50 chance of falling below 600 did not happen. Two months later (May 2009) Grantham said the rally was likely to run to 1,000 to 1,100 by year end as a ’last hurrah’ before a second decline; the S&P ended 2009 at 1,115.10 and the second decline did not come. In his Aug 2022 letter he cited this paper as one of his bullish calls.
Source: GMO, Mar 10, 2009 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily closes
4Jan. 5, 2021Last Dance bubble callGrantham wrote that the bull market since 2009 had become a fully fledged epic bubble that would burst no matter how hard the Fed tried to support it. He said the market could keep rising for a few more weeks or months, that it felt like anywhere between July 1999 and February 2000, and that calling the exact top is all but impossible.Missed the date
“My best guess as to the longest this bubble might survive is the late spring or early summer, coinciding with the broad rollout of the COVID vaccine.”
WhereGMO Viewpoints, ’Waiting for the Last Dance: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-stage Major Bubble’
The callThe bubble bursts, at the latest by late spring or early summer 2021 (his best guess)
What happenedThe S&P 500 kept rising through 2021, up 28.7% from the letter to a record 4,796.56 on Jan 3, 2022. It then fell 25% to 3,577.03 on Oct 12, 2022, and passed its old high on Jan 19, 2024.
Price since^GSPC closed at $3,726.86 (Jan. 5, 2021) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 107%.
NoteThe executive summary reads ’The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble.’ Grantham defined success modestly: that at some future date it would have paid to have ducked from midsummer 2020. The broad market top came about six months after his latest guess. Many speculative stocks did peak in February 2021, as he noted a year later. The web page carries an Aug 26, 2021 update footnote correcting a historical example about UBS Brinson in 2000, and the PDF is labeled as revised in September 2021.
Source: GMO, Jan 5, 2021 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily closes
5Jan. 20, 2022Superbubble, trend near 2,500Grantham said US stocks were in a 3-sigma superbubble, only the fourth of the last century, that every 2-sigma bubble in developed equity markets has fallen all the way back to trend, and that the ’wild rumpus’ (the decline) could begin at any time. He put trend for the S&P 500 at about 2,500, adjusted upward over time, and estimated US wealth losses of about $35 trillion if stocks, housing and bonds returned two-thirds of the way to normal.Mixed
“in the current case to a trend value of about 2500 on the S&P 500, adjusted for the passage of time, from whatever high point the market might reach (currently at nearly 4700).”
WhereGMO Viewpoints, ’Let The Wild Rumpus Begin’
The callS&P 500 falls back to its trend, about 2,500 (rising slowly over time)
What happenedA bear market followed: the S&P 500 fell from a record 4,796.56 on Jan 3, 2022 to 3,577.03 on Oct 12, 2022 (-25%), but never got near 2,500. It set new highs from Jan 2024 and stands at 7,722.60 on Oct 27, 2026.
Price since^GSPC closed at $4,482.73 (Jan. 20, 2022) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 72%.
NoteThe paper gave no deadline. In ’Entering the Superbubble’s Final Act’ (Aug 31, 2022, S&P 3,955) he called the summer 2022 rally a bear market rally and said the final act was still to come; the S&P did make a lower low in October 2022 (3,577.03) before recovering. In January 2026 Grantham wrote that the 2022 bear market (-25% in the S&P 500) was ’nipped in the bud’ by ChatGPT and that, unlike every bubble before it, this one had not yet returned to trend.
Source: GMO, Jan 20, 2022 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily closes; GMO, Jan 28, 2026
6Jan. 24, 20233,200 by 2023 to 2024Grantham said the first and easiest leg of the bubble’s bursting was over and that a further substantial decline was much more likely than not, though less certain than a year earlier. He put 3-to-1 odds on the S&P 500 reaching about 3,200 in 2023 or 2024, said a severe recession could take it just under 2,000, and noted that the Presidential Cycle and other factors could cause a pause or delay in the bear market.Missed the date
“My calculations of trendline value of the S&P 500, adjusted upwards for trendline growth and for expected inflation, is about 3200 by the end of 2023. I believe it is likely (3 to 1) to reach that trend and spend at least some time below it this year or next.”
WhereGMO Viewpoints, ’After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!’
The callS&P 500 at or below about 3,200 at some point in 2023 or 2024 (3-to-1 odds)
What happenedThe S&P 500’s lowest close from the letter to the end of 2024 was 3,855.76 (Mar 13, 2023). It ended 2023 at 4,769.83 and 2024 at 5,881.63. NBER has not declared a US recession in 2023 or 2024.
Price since^GSPC closed at $4,016.95 (Jan. 24, 2023) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 92%.
NoteThe letter also cited the inverted 10-year minus 3-month yield curve as signaling recession within the next year and suggested the final low might come well into 2024. Press reports at the time (Fortune, Jan 30, 2023) described the 3,200 target as a 20% slide for the year; from the 2022 close of 3,839.50 it was about 17%.
Source: GMO, Jan 24, 2023 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily closes; NBER business cycle dates
7Jan. 28, 2026AI bubble (2026)Grantham wrote that the US stock market had been in bubble territory for a prolonged period, now driven by AI, and that when investor confidence reaches its limits the deflating of the AI bubble will likely bring a major stumble for the economy, a plunge in profits and a severe fall in valuations. He added that the usual signs of a major top (a collapse of the most speculative stocks, strong outperformance of quality stocks, a slowing broad market) were not yet evident.Not yet due
“Sooner or later, the bubble will burst and the price will return to its historic level.”
WhereGMO Viewpoints, ’Valuing AI: Extreme Bubble, New Golden Era, or Both’ (with Edward Chancellor)
The callUS stocks fall back to their long-term trend after the AI bubble bursts (no level or date given)
What happenedSo far the S&P 500 is up 10.7% since the paper, from 6,978.03 to 7,722.60 on Oct 27, 2026. Its lowest close since then was 6,343.72 on Mar 30, 2026 (-9.1%), and it hit a record 7,818.93 on Oct 6, 2026.
Price since^GSPC closed at $6,978.03 (Jan. 28, 2026) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 11%.
NoteNo deadline was given, so this stays open. The paper says AI may eventually prove a genuine golden era even if a bust comes first, as with past technologies. It promotes Grantham and Chancellor’s book ’The Making of a Permabear’ (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2026).
Source: GMO, Jan 28, 2026 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily closes
Jim Cramer
Host of CNBC’s Mad Money
The most widely watched stock picker on TV; his calls are heavily tracked.
Dated promises: when each was made, the deadline, and what happened
- Promise window
- Past the deadline
- Delivered
- Today
S&P 500 since the first call, monthly, adjusted for splits
META since the first call, monthly, adjusted for splits
1March 11, 2008Bear StearnsAnswering a viewer who asked whether to pull money out of Bear Stearns, Cramer said Bear was not in trouble and was more likely to be taken over.Mixed
“No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble. If anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear.”
WhereMad Money (CNBC), viewer mail segment
The callBear Stearns would not fail and customers’ money there was safe (no date)
What happenedDays later, on Mar 16, 2008, JPMorgan Chase agreed to buy Bear Stearns for $2 a share with Federal Reserve support, wiping out most of the stock’s value. Bear’s brokerage customers did not lose their account money.
NoteCramer later said he was talking about the safety of brokerage accounts, not recommending the stock; account holders were protected and a takeover did happen. The firm itself was rescued at a fraction of its prior price. On The Daily Show in March 2009 Cramer acknowledged mistakes on his Bear Stearns calls.
Source: CNBC, Mar 11, 2008 · Outcome: CNBC, Mar 17, 2008; CNBC, Mar 4, 2009 (’Setting the Record Straight on Bear Stearns’)
2Oct. 6, 2008Pull five years of money out of stocksDuring the 2008 crash Cramer told viewers to take out of the stock market any money they would need within five years.Mixed
“Whatever money you need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market right now”
WhereNBC’s Today show, as reported by CBS News
The callStocks were too risky for money needed over the next five years
What happenedThe S&P 500 closed at 1,056.89 on Oct 6, 2008, fell to 676.53 on Mar 9, 2009 (down 36%), and was at 1,690.50 on Oct 4, 2013, about 60% above the level when he spoke.
Price since^GSPC closed at $1,056.89 (Oct. 6, 2008) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 631%.
NoteAdvice was framed as risk management for short-term money, not a price forecast. Over five months it avoided a further 36% drop; over the full five years the index ended well higher. CBS described it as said on his show ’last week’; Wikipedia dates it to Oct 6, 2008 on Today.
Source: CBS News, Oct 12, 2008 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
3Feb. 5, 2013FANG stocks (2013)On Mad Money, Cramer and technical analyst Bob Lang picked Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google as dominant, high-momentum tech stocks to own, which Lang nicknamed FANG.Came true
“These stocks have the potential to really take a bite out of the bears”
WhereMad Money (CNBC), with RealMoney.com analyst Bob Lang
The callThe four stocks would keep rising (no price target or date; Lang suggested buying Facebook near $28 and Amazon on a pullback to $250)
What happenedFrom the Feb 5, 2013 close to Oct 27, 2026 (split-adjusted Yahoo closes), Meta (Facebook) rose from $28.64 to $620.19 (about 21.7x), Amazon from $13.34 to $253.10 (about 19.0x), Netflix from $2.49 to $62.52 (about 25.1x) and Alphabet Class A from $19.16 to $320.58 (about 16.7x). The S&P 500 went from 1,511.29 to 7,722.60 (about 5.1x) over the same span.
NoteThe CNBC article credits Bob Lang with the nickname (’Bob Lang’s acronym’); Cramer popularized it on the show and it later grew into FAANG with Apple. All four were already large, well-known stocks at the time. Ticker left null because the call covered four stocks; Netflix and Alphabet prices reflect several later stock splits, so they will not match the $776 Google price quoted in the 2013 article.
Source: CNBC, Feb 5, 2013 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices (META, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, ^GSPC)
4March 4, 2020Buy stocks, March 2020As Covid-19 fears hit markets, Cramer said a deeply oversold reading on his favorite short-term indicator, the MarketEdge Short Range Oscillator, meant it was time to buy stocks, while expecting a mild recession.Mixed
“I expect a mild recession based on weakness in travel and entertainment, but right now the oscillator is saying you should buy stocks, both short and long term”
WhereMad Money (CNBC)
The callStocks would be higher in both the short and long term (no level or date given)
What happenedThe S&P 500 closed at 3,130.12 on Mar 4, 2020, fell another 28.5% to 2,237.40 on Mar 23, 2020, then first closed back above the Mar 4 level on Jun 5, 2020 (3,193.93). It was at 7,722.60 on Oct 27, 2026. NBER dates a recession from February to April 2020: the shortest on record, though very deep.
Price since^GSPC closed at $3,130.12 (March 4, 2020) and $7,722.60 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 147%.
NoteThe short-term part of the call was early: stocks fell sharply for almost three weeks. The long-term part held up. The next day (Mar 5, 2020, CNBC) Cramer added ’if you’re going to buy, buy gradually on the way down’ and said he did not think the market was all that close to a bottom. On Apr 1, 2020 he said he would get more constructive if stocks retested the March lows, which did not happen.
Source: CNBC, Mar 4, 2020 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices; NBER business cycle dating
5Feb. 3, 2022Meta after 2022 plungeAfter Meta fell 26% in a day on weak guidance, Cramer said he had total faith in Mark Zuckerberg and that the stock would be a buy, but told viewers to wait: ’Let them ruin the stock one more time. That will be your chance.’Mixed
“I say Meta-Facebook will be a buy because eventually the sellers do get exhausted… and this will be no different from the last three times I said to buy and everyone laughed”
WhereSquawk Box and Mad Money (CNBC)
The callMeta would recover under Zuckerberg; buy after one more drop (no price or date)
What happenedMeta kept falling, to a low close of $88.91 on Nov 3, 2022 (down 63% from Feb 3). On Oct 27, 2022, with the stock at $97.94, Cramer apologized on CNBC: ’I made a mistake here. I was wrong. I trusted this management team.’ The stock then recovered, first closing above the Feb 3, 2022 level on Apr 27, 2023, hitting a record $790.00 on Aug 12, 2025, and closing at $620.19 on Oct 27, 2026.
Price sinceMETA closed at $237.76 (Feb. 3, 2022) and $620.19 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 161%.
NoteThe same morning on Squawk Box he said: ’I know that this is probably out of fashion, I have total faith in Mark Zuckerberg’ (CNBC, Feb 3, 2022). He explicitly said not to buy yet, so the call was timed for a later drop that did come. The October 2022 apology walked back his trust in management; by Feb 2, 2023 (CNBC) he cited Meta as a case for sticking with well-run, beaten-down stocks after a 23% one-day jump. His charitable trust owned Meta shares throughout.
Source: CNBC, Feb 3, 2022 · Outcome: Fortune, Oct 27, 2022; CNBC, Oct 27, 2022; Yahoo Finance prices
6Feb. 8, 2023Top 2023 S&P stocks, incl. SVBCramer named 10 of the best-performing S&P 500 stocks of early 2023 as worth buying at the right price: Tesla, Align Technology, Catalent, Warner Bros. Discovery, Meta, Nvidia, Royal Caribbean, Carnival, SVB Financial and Norwegian Cruise Line.Mixed
“Consider me intrigued, but only if we have a couple more down days like today that give you a better buying opportunity because these stocks have all been overbought”
WhereMad Money (CNBC)
The callThe 10 stocks could have more room to run, bought on down days (no target or date)
What happenedSVB Financial’s bank, Silicon Valley Bank, was closed by California regulators on Mar 10, 2023, about a month later, with the FDIC named receiver, and the shares were wiped out. Other names did well: from the Feb 8, 2023 close to Oct 27, 2026, Nvidia rose about 882% ($22.20 to $217.94), Royal Caribbean 297%, Meta 238%, Carnival 134% and Tesla 102%, while Align fell 55% and Norwegian Cruise Line fell 7%.
NoteHe offered the 10 names as a conditional shopping list, to buy on down days. The SVB pick is the most cited because of the bank’s failure; Cramer did not single it out in the CNBC write-up. Catalent and Warner Bros. Discovery are not priced here (Catalent was later taken private; Yahoo’s current WBD history does not reach back to 2023). Ticker left null because SVB Financial (SIVB) has no Yahoo price history.
Source: CNBC, Feb 8, 2023 · Outcome: FDIC, Mar 10, 2023; Yahoo Finance prices
7Feb. 20, 2024Nvidia not near its peakAhead of Nvidia’s quarterly report, Cramer said investors should buy, not trade, the stock, comparing CEO Jensen Huang to Taylor Swift and arguing the company deserved its valuation and was nowhere near its peak.Came true
“They share kinetic energy and brilliance, and neither’s anywhere near their pinnacle”
WhereMad Money (CNBC)
The callNvidia would keep climbing over the long run (no price or date)
What happenedNVDA closed at $69.45 (split-adjusted) on Feb 20, 2024, jumped to $78.54 two days later after earnings, hit a record close of $239.24 on Oct 6, 2026, and closed at $217.94 on Oct 27, 2026, about 3.1x the level when he spoke.
Price sinceNVDA closed at $69.45 (Feb. 20, 2024) and $217.94 (Oct. 27, 2026), up 214%.
NotePrices are adjusted for Nvidia’s 10-for-1 split in June 2024 (the pre-split price on Feb 20, 2024 was about $694). The CNBC Investing Club Charitable Trust, which Cramer runs, held Nvidia shares. Cramer has repeated ’own it, don’t trade it’ about Nvidia for years; this dated segment is used as a checkable example.
Source: CNBC, Feb 20, 2024 · Outcome: Yahoo Finance prices
How we judge a call. Came true: it happened as described, by the date given. Missed the date: the deadline passed first; it may still happen, or may have happened later, and we say which. Not yet due: the deadline has not arrived. Reversed: the person changed or closed the call. Mixed: part of it happened. For 13F positions we report what the filing shows: holdings at quarter end, with options listed at the value of the underlying shares, not the cost of the bet. Prices are monthly closes adjusted for splits, through Oct. 27, 2026. Spot an error? Email [email protected].