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Ethereum Researchers Say AI Could Break Crypto Signatures Before Quantum Computers Do. Bitcoin Is Down 27% Over the Year.

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Ethereum Researchers Say AI Could Break Crypto Signatures Before Quantum Computers Do. Bitcoin Is Down 27% Over the Year.

Quick Read

  • The person sounding the loudest alarm about AI breaking crypto is also telling holders to do the opposite of what you'd expect.
  • AI hacking tools have already breached major banks, and what the attacker did next after getting caught surprised everyone.
  • Stealing every Bitcoin wallet at once could be self-defeating, though that concern applies only to one specific type of attacker.
  • Building a portfolio and living off one are two completely different skills, and almost nobody teaches the second. This problem is what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps, and it is free today. Read more here. (Sponsor)

Where we heard itTBPN, “Crypto Going ‘Bunker Mode’, The Mathpocalypse, Starbucks Explores Chipotle Takeover,” Oct. 8, 2026. Hosts: John Coogan and Jordi Hays. The warning they discussed came from Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake in an X post on Oct. 7.

EthereumETH researchers are sounding the alarm. They warn that AI-driven mathematics could threaten the cryptography that secures blockchains, and that this could happen before quantum computing becomes a threat. ForkLog reported that Ethereum researcher Justin Drake says AI could break ECDSA before quantum computers do, a point he made in his X post. The OECD’s AI Incidents Monitor has logged the researchers’ warning.

The call for “bunker mode” for BitcoinBTC holders came from Drake, according to Tekedia. Tekedia reported that Drake called for “Bunker Mode” as Vitalik Buterin warned of AI threats to cryptography, according to TradingView. NewsCord reported that Drake urged Ethereum and Bitcoin holders to adopt it. TradingView reported that Buterin backs crypto “bunker mode”, which makes him a champion of Drake’s idea, according to Tekedia.

Buterin wrote that there is “a good chance that the concrete security of lattices will take serious hits from the next two years of AI math”. He mentioned ML-DSA, FHE and lattice-based cryptography. Johns Hopkins cryptography professor Matthew Green said: “I think we might lose public key cryptography.”

Quote: “There is a good chance that the concrete security of lattices will take serious hits from the next two years of AI math.” Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum co-founder, on X
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Buterin Is Urging Crypto Holders to Slow Down

The Block reported Buterin saying “Don’t rush anything” as he warned against hasty wallet migrations. CryptoRank reported that Buterin urges calm as AI raises new fears about the cryptography behind Bitcoin and Ethereum.

His comments matter. The loudest version of this story is an alarm, yet the person at the center is telling people to slow down. Researchers are worried, but whether the threat is real remains an open question.

Line chart: Bitcoin’s monthly gain outlasted the AI warning. $100 put into each coin on Sept. 10, 2026 was worth $108 in Bitcoin (up 8.3%) and $103 in Ether (up 2.7%) at the Oct. 10 close, after both dipped following Drake’s Oct. 7 warning.
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Why an AI Math Threat Is Harder to Plan For

The hosts of TBPN compared the two threats. Quantum attacks on cryptography have been described mathematically, so defenders know what they face, but the AI math threat has not been described that way, making it harder to plan for.

South Korean Bank Attacks Show How AI Is Already Being Used in Hacking

CrowdStrikeCRWD said South Korean banks were likely hacked by a China-based actor using an AI agent, according to Reuters. The hacker used a Chinese-Developed A.I. Tool, according to The New York Times. The agent ARTEX was made closed-source after the hacks, according to Technology Org. Jim Cramer has argued that AI can’t replace CrowdStrike’s human incident response.

Quartz reported hackers breached 7 South Korean banks, while Tom’s Hardware said data from at least 25,000 Shinhan Bank customers was exposed. By Oct. 7, Quartz reported that the number of affected customers had reached 68,000. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said AI makes it possible “to hack with ease even without specialized skills.”

Prices at the Oct. 10 close

Bitcoin$82,912Up 0.4% from the day before
Ether$2,504Up 0.7% from the day before
Bitcoin in 2026−5.3%Since the Dec. 31, 2025 close
Ether, past year−34.8%Fell further than Bitcoin

Bitcoin Is Down About 27% Over 12 Months

TBPN’s hosts said Bitcoin was down 3% that day and up 3% for the month and reasoned that markets were not panicking. Longer-term figures add context. Bitcoin closed at $82,912 on October 10, 2026, up 0.4% from the day before. Its one-week change of -2.2% covers a full week of trading, part of it before this news. Its one-month gain of 8.3% is larger than the hosts said.

The podcast left out the 12-month figure. Over the past year, Bitcoin has fallen 26.8%. That figure depends on the start date: Bitcoin dropped sharply on Oct. 10, 2025, and measured from the Oct. 9, 2025 close the decline is 31.9%. Over 60 days, it is up 30.5%. Over the shortest periods, there is no sign of panic about this warning, so the hosts’ point holds, but a reader who heard only that Bitcoin was down 3% would not get an accurate picture of its year. Bitcoin set its record high on Oct. 6, 2025, and almost exactly a year later Fundstrat’s Tom Lee called the bottom of the four-year cycle.

Bar chart: Bitcoin looks calm up close and battered over a year. Bitcoin’s price change to the Oct. 10, 2026 close: down 2.2% over one week, up 8.3% over one month, up 30.5% over 60 days and down 26.8% over one year.
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Why Stealing Every Wallet Could Backfire

The hosts reasoned that breaking Bitcoin would be self-defeating, because an attacker who stole every wallet would destroy the value of what they took. An attacker seeking destruction rather than profit would not be held back by that logic. Jordi Hays said the classic crypto strategy of holding “is not necessarily going to be effective for this next chapter.”

An industry built on resisting government regulation may find that protecting itself from this risk points toward regulating AI.

The bottom line

Justin Drake and Vitalik Buterin warn that AI-driven math could weaken the signatures and lattice cryptography that protect crypto, possibly before quantum computers do, and both tell holders not to rush. Prices shrugged in the short run, with Bitcoin up 8.3% over the month to Oct. 10, though it was still down 26.8% over the year.

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