Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR) has lost 85.36% of its value over five years through Friday’s final close. The decline has continued into this month. The stock fell 22.79% over the past month and 5.74% in Friday’s session alone, closing at $103.38. Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) has dropped 52.45% over five years and 14.66% over the past month. All figures are Friday closes because markets were shut over the weekend.
Those losses set up a warning from Jack Hough, columnist at Barron’s, on the Barron’s Streetwise podcast. His view is that cable’s low multiples are the market’s judgment on a shrinking business.
Hough’s Numbers Checked Against Friday’s Close
Jack Hough said Charter had fallen 84% over five years. Our data through Friday shows a slightly larger decline of 85.36%. Both point the same way, and a stock that keeps falling will outrun any figure given a few days earlier.
On Comcast, Hough cited a decline of 60%. Our five-year figure is 52.45%. His Comcast figure’s time window wasn’t specified, and a peak-to-present measure would differ from a five-year one. We are reporting the five-year number we can verify.
Some of his claims we could not check. Hough said Charter trades at 3 times forward earnings and Comcast at about 6 times, and that these rank as the lowest and sixth-lowest P/E stocks in the S&P 500. Those figures are his, and so are the industry statistics below.
Why Hough Calls This Cable’s Second Death
Hough calls the current threat “the second death for cable” and says it is “going to be a little trickier than the first death.” The first death was cord-cutting, when customers dropped the TV bundle for streaming. Cable got through it because broadband was the business that counted and cable could raise its price. Pay TV had always meant paying the networks for their content.
The new threat is fiber optic broadband from telecom companies. Hough says fiber already reaches 65% of households and is expected to top 90% by 2030. Hough puts fiber’s market share at 22% against cable’s 56%. Hough says Starlink holds 4% in rural markets and fixed wireless has taken 14%.
Hough also points to bundling. Hough says telecoms pair fiber with wireless service, which reduces customer churn across both. Churn is the rate at which customers cancel. A rival that can discount two services at once keeps subscribers longer, and in his view cable has no matching tool.
In Hough’s view, repricing won’t work this time. During cord-cutting, cable raised broadband prices as video revenue fell. When a cheaper competitor goes after broadband itself, that option disappears. Hough’s warning: “Don’t be too tempted when you see giant dividend yields on cable stocks or shockingly low price-to-earnings ratios. Those numbers are that for a reason.” (We listed seven warning signs that a fat yield is about to be cut in a free dividend trap guide.)
Micron Shows a Different Kind of Cheap
In an April episode, Hough named Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) the cheapest stock in the S&P 500 relative to earnings. Hough now says it is up 144% since then, adding, “That is not normal.” Our data shows Micron up 260.76% year to date and 435.56% over one year. His figure starts in April and ours start in January and a year ago, so the windows differ. Either way, the stock kept climbing after he spoke.
Hough uses Micron to make a contrast. Its multiple was low because the earnings were growing so quickly as a cyclical business came out of a trough. Cable’s multiple is low because its businesses are losing share for structural reasons. When earnings are rising, a low multiple can fix itself. When earnings are shrinking, it can stay low. His co-host’s comment about watching streaming rather than cable is the kind of habit that shows up in company financials years later.
Arguments the Bear Case Leaves Out
Neither company responded in the segment. In Charter’s second-quarter earnings report, chief executive Chris Winfrey said the plan is to “deliver the best products, at the best overall value, with the best service.” On the earnings call, he said internet customers who also buy Spectrum Mobile “churn nearly 40% less.”
Cheap stocks in declining industries sometimes recover, and a business that generates cash can return a lot of it to shareholders while it shrinks. Hough gave no price target or timeframe, and he did not say the stocks go to zero. Building fiber also takes capital and years, and his projection runs to 2030.
Ask This About Any Very Low Multiple
When a stock trades at a very low multiple, the question is whether the market is mispricing the business or correctly pricing its decline. For Charter and Comcast, watch broadband losses and mobile growth in upcoming earnings.