Long-term Treasury yields are pressing toward the top of their recent range, and stocks have largely shrugged off the move. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., told CNBC this calm has a time limit. “The thing is, we’ve seen this so many times in the past where interest rates, long-term interest rates, move higher in a significant way and the stock market just shakes it off. But the problem is that it can do that for several months, but eventually it does have an impact.”
Six Precedent Years Anchor Maley’s Warning
Maley cited 1987, 2000, 2007, 2018, 2020 and 2022 as examples, mentioning those years also included significant rises in crude oil. His summary: “The bond market is usually right.”
Where Treasury Yields Stand Today
Per Treasury Department data for September 25, 2026, the 2-year yield was 4.81%, the 10-year was 5.17% and the 30-year was 5.49%. Maley said “Now you’re getting 5% or almost 5% on a two-year.” His hedge holds up: almost 5% is a fair description of the actual figure.
Equities have absorbed the move so far. The S&P 500 was on track for a weekly gain of about three quarters of 1% despite rising yields, and the VIX stood at 14.21 on September 22, a reading below 15 associated with low volatility.
Testing His Central Evidence Against HYG
Maley’s key exhibit was the high-yield bond market: “High-yield spreads don’t widen out until the stock market has already been hit in a significant way. HYG has been falling dramatically this year. As the S&P has been making higher highs, the HYG high-yield ETF has been making lower highs.”
The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:HYG) is one of the most widely used vehicles for U.S. “junk” bond exposure and a common indicator of credit risk appetite. Its latest prospectus lists a net expense ratio of 0.49%.
HYG traded at $78.22 on September 25, up 0.46% on the day. The fund is up 0.96% year to date and up 2.55% over the past year. Set against Maley’s description of a dramatic fall this year, HYG is higher on the year.
Shorter Window Shows His Divergence
Over recent weeks, the pattern he describes appears. Here is HYG next to the S&P 500, measured through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY):
| Window | HYG | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Past week | Down 0.39% | Up 1.40% |
| Past month | Down 1.56% | Up 0.82% |
The divergence is real but recent. A one-month divergence is a weaker signal than a year-long one.
Index Gains Frame the Stakes
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust traded at $772.36 after hours on September 25, up 0.13%. It is up 13.26% year to date, 17.37% over the past year and 73.99% over five years.
Maley said the S&P 500 has doubled in the last 3 to 4 years and the Nasdaq 100 has risen 180% over that span.
Warning Signs Stacking Up at Once
Maley also pointed to underperformance in chip stocks, valuation concerns, narrow rally breadth and the high-yield divergence. His argument is that danger builds when several signals show up together.
His conclusion: “It’s just with interest rates higher and what history tells us about this, getting a little bit more defensive, maybe even raising a little bit of cash.” That market call is Maley’s own.
What a Pattern Argument Can Deliver
Maley is describing a pattern that has happened repeatedly without offering timing, which is both the strength and limit of his case. Rates are at the high end of their recent range, and the recent high-yield divergence is genuine. Investors tracking his thesis can monitor whether HYG’s one-month weakness extends into a longer trend.