Crude oil has been falling, yet diesel remains expensive. On the September 28, 2026 episode of Fox Business’s Kudlow, Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, traced the problem away from oil fields and toward the plants that turn crude into fuel.
“It isn’t an oil problem. We have all the oil we need, we have oil everywhere, but the problem is that refining capacity is the issue right now,” Flynn told the host.
Our Own Crude Data Already Shows the Slide
Our Brent crude series supports the direction of Flynn’s argument. Brent was $130.80 on September 15, 2026 and had fallen to $114.89 by September 22, 2026. That is a meaningful drop in about a week, and it confirms the crude side has been easing. Our series stops on September 22, so we do not have a current crude price.
During the broadcast, West Texas Intermediate was cited at around $93 a barrel and Brent at around $105. Both figures sit below our last Brent reading, which fits with the decline continuing past September 22. We could not independently confirm either number.
Why Refineries Can Keep Fuel Expensive
Crude is the raw input. Refineries process it into diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. When processing capacity runs short, finished fuel stays expensive even if crude is cheap and ample, because the barrels cannot be converted fast enough to meet demand.
Federal forecasts point to plants running hard. The Energy Information Administration’s May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projected a refinery distillation utilization factor of 0.96 for the third quarter of 2026, a forecast that leaves little slack if demand jumps or a facility goes down.
Diesel Costs Ripple Into Everything You Buy
According to figures discussed on the broadcast, the national average diesel price is $6.45 a gallon, while California diesel is $8.39 a gallon, about $3 higher than a year ago. The pressure extends overseas: the BBC reported that UK diesel prices hit an all-time high, according to the RAC.
Diesel powers freight trucks, farm equipment and construction machinery. When it rises, shippers, growers and builders pass those costs into the price of goods. That makes a diesel spike an economy-wide input cost, reaching far beyond what households pay at the pump.
Flynn’s Case for How Capacity Got So Tight
Flynn offered his own view of the causes, and it is politically charged. “The green energy movement declared war on refineries. Shut them down, we aren’t using diesel fuel, and now, because we have constrained capacity, and now you have wars and attacks on refineries, that lack of capacity is showing up in a huge way,” he said. That characterization is Flynn’s own and should be read as his opinion.
He also pointed to Russian and Ukrainian refineries coming offline, and said Middle East production has recovered about 80% from pre-war levels since February. We did not verify either claim.
One Analyst’s Midterm Forecast Hinges on Hormuz
Flynn predicted that if attacks on Russian refineries pause, the war with Iran eases and oil keeps moving through the Strait of Hormuz, prices could break before the midterms. He added that as gasoline and diesel prices fall, Republican approval numbers rise. That is one analyst’s prediction.
Each of those conditions remains uncertain. The New York Times reported on September 26, 2026 that Trump rejected Iran’s cease-fire proposal to reopen the strait, and The Guardian described the rejected offer as a seven-day peace deal. PBS reported the rejection as well, and The Wall Street Journal reported Trump expects renewed bombing after the midterms. On Monday, ABC News reported Marines were hurt in a ship attack in the strait, while Al Jazeera reported Trump said U.S. officials met with war mediators, per the latest headlines.
The Gap That Will Test Flynn’s Thesis
The testable piece of Flynn’s argument is simple. If refining is the true constraint, crude can keep falling without diesel following, and the distance between the two becomes the signal to track. Our own data already shows crude coming down. Whether diesel follows remains the open question, and weekly EIA fuel data will offer the first answer.