Elizabeth Warren Says Halloween Candy Prices Are ‘Through the Roof.’ Government Data Shows Candy Up 7.7% in a Year

Sen. Elizabeth Warren picked Halloween week to make a point about the cost of living. In a post on X on Oct. 27, the Massachusetts Democrat wrote that “candy prices are through the roof” and listed five seasonal packs: Hershey seasonal peanut butter cups up 23%, Hershey hard candies up 19%, a Ferrero chocolate pack up 19%, a Mars chocolate variety pack up 13% and a Tootsie variety pack up 5%.

Her post didn’t name a source. Two of the five figures match a study by Groundwork Collaborative and The Century Foundation, two progressive policy groups, that Scripps News reported first on Oct. 20. It compared NielsenIQ average prices for the week ending Oct. 3, 2026, with the same week a year earlier. Hershey’s seasonal peanut butter cups averaged $8.23, up 23%, and Ferrero’s chocolate packs rose nearly 19%. Across Halloween candy packs, the study found an average increase of 15.3%. We could not find her other three figures in published coverage of the study.

What the Government’s Candy Index Shows

The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks candy and chewing gum as its own line in the consumer price index. In September, the latest month available (the report came out Oct. 14), that index was 7.7% higher than a year earlier. Prices overall rose 3.7%. Candy inflation is running about twice the overall rate, and at about half the 15.3% the study found for Halloween packs.

The two measures are built differently. The CPI follows candy of every kind, every month, from gum at the register to boxed chocolates. The study looked at Halloween packs in a single week of each year.

Over a longer stretch the gap is wider. Since January 2020, the candy index is up 48.4%, against 30.6% for all items. Over the five years through September, candy rose 44%.

Cocoa Fell More Than Half. Candy Kept Climbing.

Chocolate makers spent 2024 and early 2025 absorbing a cocoa shock. Front-month cocoa futures closed at $12,565 a metric ton on Dec. 18, 2024. On Oct. 27 they closed at $5,563, 55.7% below that peak. Cocoa has not stayed cheap, though: the Oct. 27 close was nearly double the 2026 low of $2,798 on Feb. 27.

The groups behind the study read the gap between falling input costs and rising shelf prices as profit-taking. Groundwork’s Elizabeth Pancotti told Scripps News that “where we are seeing these costs come down, they are keeping prices high and profiting from those increased margins.” The same study also pointed to costs that have gone up: aluminum and plastic packaging and diesel for trucking. Trade policy is adding another layer, with new 50% duties on Canadian cocoa powder.

Candy prices, by the numbers

What Hershey Has Said About Its Prices

HersheyHSY has been open about it. In its second-quarter report on July 30, the company said prices in its North America confectionery business rose 14% from a year earlier while volume and mix fell 10%, leaving segment sales up 4.2%. Shoppers bought less candy and paid more for what they bought. Hershey was scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct. 29, before the market opened.

Investors have not rewarded the strategy. Hershey shares closed at $164.51 on Oct. 27, down 9.6% for the year, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETFSPY rose 12.9%. MondelezMDLZ, whose sour gummy pack the study flagged with a 39% increase, is up 15.8%.

Shoppers Are Buying Less

The price rises are showing up in sales. Halloween candy sales fell 6.7% in the month ending Oct. 17 from a year earlier, the Associated Press reported, citing NielsenIQ. Small bags were the only sizes still growing. Kroger’s CEO has described the same shopper as “resilient, but probably more intentional.”

Where today sits

Candy prices are rising faster than in 91% of months since 1998

Change in the candy and chewing gum price index from a year earlier, every month from Dec. 1998 to Sept. 2026. The shaded bands hold the middle half and the middle 80% of all 333 readings.

Middle half: 0.8% to 4.4%Middle 80%: −0.3% to 7.5%Median 2.1%

Middle half: 0.8% to 4.4%Middle 80%: −0.3% to 7.5%Median 2.1%

Measured against its own history, September’s 7.7% is high. It beats 91% of the 333 monthly readings since late 1998, when the index starts. It has eased from 11.6% in February, though, and sits below the series high of 14.2% in October 2022.

What to Watch

October consumer prices are due Nov. 10. BLS published no October 2025 index because of last fall’s government shutdown, so a standard 12-month comparison for October candy prices may be missing. NielsenIQ’s full-season numbers will show whether late shoppers made up for the slow start. Cocoa is the other tell: if futures keep climbing from their February low, candy makers will have a cost case for holding prices up into 2027.