Michelle Meyer, chief economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute, said on CNBC that consumers still have the means to spend. Her employer, Mastercard (NYSE:MA), sees card transaction data, so her read on actual spending carries weight. A payments company also has a commercial interest in consumer spending, so readers should consider both facts.
Meyer called sentiment surveys “somewhat misleading, frankly, for the last few years. So it’s been hard to reconcile what the sentiment surveys have been suggesting about what consumers will do versus actual spending.”
On purchasing power, Meyer said: “Does the consumer have the ability to spend? And I think right now the answer is yes. You have a 4.2% unemployment rate. You’ve had impressive wealth gains. If you look at the health of the household balance sheet, and that’s allowing consumers to realize some of those wealth gains, and that further generates power to spend.”
Her Unemployment Figure Checks Out, With a Wrinkle
Bureau of Labor Statistics data put the September unemployment rate at 4.2%, so her figure is accurate. The rate was 4.1% in July and 4.1% in August, which means the September reading came in above both. The labor market is solid, but the rate has moved off its summer low.
Meyer’s 5.5% Holiday Call Is Still Only a Forecast
Meyer said the following. “We’re looking for 5.5% year over year growth in the holiday season, which will be the strongest in over four years if we’re right.” That figure is a Mastercard projection. The season has not happened yet.
Meyer Raised the Split Herself
Meyer described “the discerning consumer,” adding that consumers “have a lot more choices right now. They have a lot more information, so they can be really mindful about how they are spending,” with technology playing a big role. Meyer also pointed to “this bifurcated story where consumers are being really careful of what they’re doing with their dollars.”
She spent the least time on that divide, and the survey data below backs it up.
FINRA’s Household Survey Shows Where the Strain Sits
The FINRA Foundation’s National Financial Capability Study, 2024 wave, published in 2025, asked U.S. adults about this directly. The data is older than Meyer’s comments. In the 2024 wave, 26% said they spend more than their income, up from 19% in 2021, which the study calls an all-time high for the survey. The share spending less than their income fell to 38% from 43%.
FINRA’s 2024 wave also found that the share with three months of living expenses saved fell to 46% from 53%. Two-thirds said higher food costs made them cut back on other spending.
Income splits the results sharply. In the 2024 FINRA wave, 23% of respondents earning under $25,000 said covering their bills was not at all difficult, compared with 63% of those earning $75,000 or more.
FINRA’s 2024 study also describes a “struggle of the middle.”. Households earning between $25,000 and $75,000, people with some college but no degree, and adults aged 35 to 54 share many of the struggles of lower-income and younger groups. Declines in making ends meet were larger among higher earners, at 11 to 14 points, than among the lowest income group, at seven points.
How Both Readings Can Be True
Meyer is describing total spending, and the households with the most money make up most of it, while FINRA is describing the distribution, which shows where the typical household sits. If gains go mostly to people who already spend heavily, total spending can speed up while the median household falls behind.
The households that realize wealth gains are the ones that own assets, and asset ownership is concentrated. So the factor Meyer mentions as support for purchasing power also widens the gap she calls divide, and her data and FINRA’s can both be accurate because they count different things.
What This Means for Consumer Stock Investors
A strong total spending number is a real signal for companies that sell to the top of the income distribution, but it means less for companies that sell to the middle. The same headline can point to opposite conclusions depending on who a business sells to. That helps explain why results from consumer companies can split sharply in a quarter when the total data looks consistently good.
Limits of This Analysis
- FINRA’s figures come from the 2024 wave, and conditions may have changed. They are also self-reported survey answers, the same kind of data Meyer calls misleading.
- Meyer’s holiday number is a forecast, and forecasts can miss.
- We did not verify her claims about wealth gains, household balance sheets, or faster spending in the first half.
- One month of unemployment data is not a trend.
In total, consumers are clearly spending. What’s unclear is which consumers, and these two sources answer it differently because they count different things.