Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, saw a rough week for chip stocks and concluded that the market is spreading its gains across more stocks. “This rotation out of tech is not the end of the world. In fact it’s pretty healthy,” Detrick said on a CNBC panel on October 16, 2026. The selling he described has been heavy. As of 12:41 PM ET Friday, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) was down 9.49% over the past week, and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, was down 4.27%.
Detrick shared the panel with Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, and Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma. He has been making this case for a while. Two days earlier, he told CNBC that this bull market probably has a lot more life to it.
Equal Weight Stocks Gained While Tech Giants Slid
This week’s fund performance is the cleanest way to check Detrick’s rotation argument:
| Fund | One-Week Change (Intraday Oct. 16) |
|---|---|
| Equal weight S&P 500 (RSP) | +1.18% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -0.98% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | -4.27% |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | -9.49% |
The standard S&P 500 weights each company by its market value, so a handful of mega-cap tech names drive most of its moves. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:RSP) counts every company the same, which means it shows how the typical stock did. The typical stock rose this week. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) fell, and the funds most concentrated in tech and chips fell the heaviest.
Context matters here too. Even after this week’s slide, the semiconductor fund is still up 52.61% year to date, against 12.38% for the S&P 500 fund. The pullback came after a very large run. Friday’s session added to the pressure, with the semiconductor fund down 1.65%, the Nasdaq 100 fund down 1.69% and the S&P 500 fund down 0.70% as of noon.
Breadth Is Improving Under the Surface
Ryan Detrick pointed to participation as his main evidence: “Nine of the last 11 days we’ve had more advancers on the S&P 500 than decliners. The breadth has actually improved a lot lately.”
Breadth measures whether more stocks are rising than falling. A market that climbs on just a few giants has weak breadth and depends heavily on those names. When most stocks are advancing, the rally rests on a wider base. Kochuba made a similar point on the panel, saying the broader market had held up while chip stocks fell.
Volatility has picked up without reaching panic levels. The VIX stood at 16.87 on October 14, up 11.9% from a week earlier but still inside its normal 15 to 20 range.
Anthropic IPO Talk Adds to AI Jitters
The AI trade got another test this week. Some Anthropic investors are reportedly considering an IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion, according to Reuters. Earlier reporting had discussed a figure of $2 trillion. This is investor discussion, and no valuation has been set.
Anthropic is still private and has no listed shares. We covered the valuation debate in detail earlier this month. Trillion-dollar price tags on private AI companies are the kind of thing that eventually forces a decision about when to ride the mania and when to step aside, which is the whole subject of our free bubble handbook: here.
Earnings Growth Anchors the Year-End Record Call
Haworth focused on the economy. “The economic story remains solid. The fundamentals keep improving for us as we look into year end,” he said.
Ryan Detrick expects full-year 2026 earnings growth of 32% and cited 28% growth for the third quarter: “We’re expecting up 32% for 2026. It looks like it’s a 28% earnings growth story for Q3. I think that’s enough to get this market into new record territory by the time we get to year end.”
According to the CNBC broadcast, the S&P 500 sits 1.5% below its recent record high. Detrick’s growth figures and his year-end record call are forecasts, and third-quarter reports are still coming in.
What Would Prove Detrick Wrong
This week’s numbers back the rotation part of Detrick’s argument. Money left chips and mega-cap tech and moved into the rest of the index, and the typical stock rose. A breakdown would show weakness spreading from the leaders to everything else, and that has not happened yet.
The signal to track is simple: whether the equal weight S&P 500 keeps beating the Nasdaq 100 as earnings season continues. If the equal weight fund starts falling alongside the tech-heavy funds, the rotation has turned into broad selling, and the year-end record call loses its support.