Where we heard itThe Peter Schiff Show podcast, “Gold Should Have Soared This Week… Traders Just Handed You a Gift,” Oct. 17, 2026. Speaker: Peter Schiff.
September’s consumer price index came in hot, and gold and silver fell anyway. The consumer price index rose 0.6% from August and 3.7% from a year earlier. Gold futures closed the week at $4,181.10 on Friday, October 16, down from $4,216.30 a week earlier. Silver fell harder, to $56.99 from $60.67.
Peter Schiff cited slightly different closing levels on his podcast, in an episode titled Gold Should Have Soared This Week… Traders Just Handed You a Gift. He put gold at roughly $4,145, down half a percent, and silver near $56.85, off about 3%. Traders followed a simple chain of reasoning: hot inflation brings a tougher Fed and higher rates, which makes metals that pay no yield less attractive. Schiff says they got that chain backwards.
Schiff Says Hot Inflation Means the Fed Already Lost
“If they actually understood that the hotter than expected inflation numbers doesn’t mean that the Fed’s going to fight harder to beat inflation, it means the Fed has already lost. Inflation has won,” Schiff said.
Schiff said September’s monthly gain annualizes to 7.4%. He also pointed to core CPI, which strips out food and energy. By his numbers, core rose 0.3% for the month, came in 50% above expectations, and stood at 2.6% year over year. Energy drove much of the headline jump, according to New York Times coverage of rising energy prices. Jim Cramer called the tariff-driven price increases in the same report a regressive tax on households earning $30,000 to $60,000.
Bond markets did little to support the sell-gold trade. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.10% on October 15, down from 5.22% on October 8.
Schiff Calls Warsh a Dove in Hawk’s Clothing
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said the Fed is focused on moderating rising prices and has given no hint about the next rate hike, according to NBC News. Market odds of an October hike fell to about 15% after his overnight remarks on Oct. 16. Schiff wants investors to judge the Fed by what it does. He said Warsh has raised rates only 25 basis points over 5 months, and that the Fed’s balance sheet is larger now than when Warsh started. The official record shows the upper bound of the fed funds range rising from 3.75% to 4.00% on September 17, 2026.
Schiff also said M2 money supply has been growing at close to a 6% annualized rate over the past five months. Official data put M2 at $23.34 trillion in August, up 0.5% from July. To Schiff, a 4% policy rate alongside 3.7% headline inflation and a growing money supply amounts to accommodation, which is why he calls Warsh “a dove in hawk’s clothing.”
Schiff’s case in four numbers
Why Schiff Sees the Silver Selloff as a Gift
Schiff said silver fell as low as $55 and change during the week before recovering. “This is a great buy, getting silver back below $60, especially given all of the bullish news that came out this week that traders don’t understand just how bullish it is,” he said.
For retirement savers who hold metals through funds, the decline is concrete. iShares Silver TrustSLV is down 20.04% year to date and 9.71% over the past month. SPDR Gold SharesGLD is down 3.61% year to date, though it remains up 131.06% over five years. Silver’s larger moves in both directions make position sizing especially important for income-focused portfolios.
What Would Break Schiff’s Thesis and the Date to Watch
Schiff’s argument rests on the Fed staying behind inflation. If Warsh delivers a string of aggressive hikes and inflation cools down, the traders who sold gold on hot CPI data would be proven right, and real yields would weigh on metals. Recent coverage from Reuters noted that a rate hike was back on the table after the September report.
The clearest test is the next CPI release, scheduled for November 10, 2026. Another hot reading coupled with a conservative Fed would support Schiff’s view that the central bank has lost control. A cooler number following a stronger policy response would undercut it. Investors weighing gold or silver should track both the inflation trend and the size of the Fed’s response, since Schiff’s thesis depends on the gap between the two.
Schiff reads September’s hot inflation report as proof that the Fed under Kevin Warsh has fallen behind, which he says is good news for gold and silver. He calls silver below $60 a buying chance. The risk to his view is a Fed that hikes hard enough to cool inflation, and the November 10 CPI report is the next test.